River Flood Warning 30, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
941 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO EXTEND HIGH WIND WARNING EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION. STRONG WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
LINE OF SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS MCS IS IN ITS BEGINNING
STAGES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE DATA INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THESE STORMS
ACCELERATING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE PROLIFIC WIND PRODUCERS...WITH 70 MPH WIND GUSTS EASILY
ATTAINABLE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALSO EXIST FOR SOME LARGE
HAIL. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
MESOVORTICES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
MCS WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...POSSIBLY CLEARING THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THIS TYPE OF MCS IS
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG. THE BAD
NEWS IS THAT RAINFALL RATES WITH THE LINE WILL BE RATHER INTENSE.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH WE WILL WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WAKE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS OUT WEST MAY ALLOW SOME
AFTERNOON WARMING.

WE MAY SEE A LEFT OVER SHOWER OR STORM TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT A PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO SHIFT MOST IF
NOT ALL ACTIVITY INTO ARKANSAS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. WE MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHOT AT SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE AREA. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH INSTABILITY...SO THINK
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WORK WEEK
BEFORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

A SEVERE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WILL PASS THROUGH KJLN AND KSGF BETWEEN 13
AND 16Z. IFR AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. ONCE THE MAIN LINE PASSES...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A STRATUS DECK
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH IFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ066>068-
     070-071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ077-079>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091700-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1151 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS... CREEKS AND STREAMS AS RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S MILLER              37.20N  93.84W
05/08/2009                   LAWRENCE           MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE 39 CLOSED WITH DEBRIS OVER THE ROADWAY.
            TIME ESTIMATED

&&

KARDELL

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