Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
402 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...

VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE OZARKS. SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO
CONGEAL ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST NOW
ENTERING WESTERNMOST MISSOURI. SUBSTANTIAL WIND RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SQUALL LINE WITH WINDS UP TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE TIMING THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO MAKE ALTERATIONS POST PACKAGE ISSUANCE TO MORE
PROPERLY ASSESS RAINFALL POTENTIAL. WILL MOST LIKELY BE CUTTING
POPS OVER WESTERN ZONE FURTHER AS THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO
MAKE PROGRESS EAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD COVERAGE
TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL STILL BE PRONE TO
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE DEPARTING
SFC LOW. GENERALLY HELD AT MAV WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND A
LITTLE LOWER WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...925/850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TUESDAY. MAY STILL BE A LINGERING STRATUS ISSUE FOR
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY ON...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BY THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY HELD CLOSE TO MAV FOR HIGHS AND BELOW FOR LOWS WHICH
WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UNFORTUNATELY...OUR ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS
TO CONTINUE. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND ANOTHER SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NATION. MULTIPLE ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL ONCE AGAIN
LEAD TO ANOTHER SIZABLE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS EITHER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND PASSAGE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN
APPEAR LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE CURRENT ESF
HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR THIS
TIME FRAME GIVEN WET MODELS AND STRONG SIGNALS FROM THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGE POP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON
WARM FRONT LOCATION...HELD CLOSE TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS. WHICH ARE
AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND BELOW AVERAGE NORTH OF
THE FRONT.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM THE 00Z SUITE SEEM TO BE CONVERGING A BIT
WITH THE 12Z SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH TRUST IN THIS REMAIN TENUOUS.
THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD EVOLVE TO A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION...
BUT A FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ARE STILL POSSIBLE. STORM SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR WED/THUR RAINS SHOULD BE EXITING STAGE EAST EARLY
FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY...HAVE KEPT ANY RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW
SIDE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ANY PARTICULAR WAVES. AT
THIS POINT...PRESENT INDICATIONS POINT TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z AT JLN AND 02Z AT
SGF. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITION AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
KTS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. GUSTY SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT WITH A HIGH OVERCAST
EXPECTED.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
104 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
104 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 DAMAGING WIND UP TO 70 MPH.
 LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
 ISOLATED TORNADOES.
 FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
 THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
 SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
 CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
 CASSVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH THROUGH 400 PM...THIS
 INCLUDES EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
 MISSOURI.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESSIVELY SPREAD TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO
SPRINGFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH AFTER 300 PM.

 THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
 THROUGH THE AREA. AT 100 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER
 EASTERN KANSAS BACK INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS STATE LINE AFTER 4 PM...MOVING
THROUGH THE WARSAW...BOLIVAR...SPRINGFIELD AND REEDS SPRING AREAS
BY 8 PM AND THE EASTERN OZARKS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

 SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
 COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WIND
 SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO MAINTAIN THE
 RISK OF TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS
 TO 70 MPH. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
 TO COMBINE INTO A SQUALL LINE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WITH THIS SQUALL LINE WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THE
LINE OF STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

 IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
 IS EXPECTED AS WELL. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL
 ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN WITHIN
 THIS ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO RAPID RAINFALL ACCUMULATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
  ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT.
  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
447 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             AVA                     36.95N 92.66W
03/31/2008  E0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JSCHAUM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
449 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
03/31/2008                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            LIMBS DOWN AROUND PARKVIEW HIGH SCHOOL

&&

JSCHAUM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
452 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             4 N AVA                 37.01N 92.66W
03/31/2008  M0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL REPORTED MEASURING 0.88 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
455 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     FLASH FLOOD      AVA                     36.95N 92.66W
03/31/2008                   DOUGLAS            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED.

&&

JSCHAUM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
506 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEBANON                 37.68N 92.66W
03/31/2008                   LACLEDE            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF BLOW OFF A BODY SHOP ON THE NORTHEAST OUTER ROAD IN
            LEBANON.

&&

KARDELL