Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 312118
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
418 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

MOC229-312200-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-080331T2200Z/
WRIGHT MO-
418 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR WRIGHT COUNTY...

AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY NEAR DOGWOOD...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MANSFIELD BY 430 PM CDT.
  HARTVILLE BY 435 PM CDT.
  NORWOOD BY 440 PM CDT.
  MOUNTAIN GROVE BY 450 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF DUNCAN...ODIN...MANES...DAWSON AND GRAFF ARE IN THE PATH
OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3707 9269 3726 9268 3727 9270 3748 9269
      3748 9225 3715 9225 3706 9226
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 246DEG 49KT 3722 9276 3707 9274
          3694 9279

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 312200
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

MOC229-312210-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-080331T2200Z/
WRIGHT MO-
500 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WRIGHT COUNTY EXPIRES AT 500
PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING ARE EXITING THE WARNED
AREA...THUS THE WARNING IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3707 9269 3726 9268 3727 9270 3748 9269
      3748 9225 3715 9225 3706 9226
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 246DEG 49KT 3722 9276 3707 9274
          3694 9279

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
112 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN
ELEVATED SITUATIONAL AWARENESS IS ADVISED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST WITH THE AID OF AN 850MB LOW LEVEL
JET. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GAGE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR
WICHITA KANSAS TO NEAR KANSAS CITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS A MOIST AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE KICKED INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE NAM
AND GFS PROGGING LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR 7 DEGREES
CELSIUS/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KTS...AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
LINE FROM NEAR JOPLIN TO SPRINGFIELD TO BRANSON WHERE THE GFS AND
NAM MODELS PROG 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES GENERALLY 300-400 M2/S2.
ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THUS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME TORNADIC.
FACTORS THE COULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES INCLUDE
LIMITED HEATING AND SURFACE CAPE DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOLER AND DRY AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ANGLE

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SHORTWAVES RIDE THE QUASI
ZONAL FLOW AND INTERACT WITH A MEANDERING EAST-WEST ORIENTED
BAROLINOC ZONE. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASE
OVERTOP A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FROM
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EAST ALONG THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER RAINFALL RATES.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER EXIST BUT IS DEPENDENT
UPON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. IF THE WARM SECTOR LIFTS
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS PROGGED BY THE GFS THE POTENTIAL
OF SURFACE BASED STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WOULD INCREASE. IN THE
VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AND AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING THAT WILL LIKELY
TRANSPIRE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS...SERIOUS FLOODING COULD UNFOLD DURING MID AND LATE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHERS WITH FLOOD RELATED CONCERNS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST...AND RIVER STAGES AND
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRON WILL AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z AT JLN AND 02Z AT
SGF. CEILINGS AND VISBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR NEAR
THUNDERSTROMS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITION AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
KTS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. GUSTY SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT WITH A HIGH OVERCAST
EXPECTED.

FOSTER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN
A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING AS THE WATER DRAINS INTO CREEKS..STREAMS AND RIVERS
THERE WILL BE RAPID RISES IN LEVELS DUE TO THE SATURATED SOIL AND
RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALONG A STALLED FRONT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS
RAINFALL ON TOP OF RAINFALL RECEIVED TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD
AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING...AND QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
AND SERIOUS RIVER FLOODING.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHERS WITH FLOOD RELATED CONCERNS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST...AND RIVER STAGES AND
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

ANGLE/FOSTER

&&

.CLIMATE...

MARCH 2008 WILL BE RECORDED AS A HISTORICAL WET MONTH. THE TABLE
BELOW LISTS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED SO FAR AT EACH
STATION ALONG WITH THE CURRENT RECORD RANK AND THE RECORD MARCH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG WITH THE YEAR.

LOCATION     MARCH PRECIP SO FAR   CURRENT RANK   MARCH RECORDS

SPRINGFIELD         8.71              5TH         9.09 1935 (1)
                                                   7.87 1990 (5)
JOPLIN              5.93              8TH         9.04 1973 (1)
                                                   5.93 1975 (8)
WEST PLAINS        13.57              1ST         9.87 2002 (1)
VICHY ROLLA         8.31              1ST         7.41 1945 (1)

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
104 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
104 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 DAMAGING WIND UP TO 70 MPH.
 LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
 ISOLATED TORNADOES.
 FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
 THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
 SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
 CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
 CASSVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH THROUGH 400 PM...THIS
 INCLUDES EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
 MISSOURI.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESSIVELY SPREAD TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO
SPRINGFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH AFTER 300 PM.

 THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
 THROUGH THE AREA. AT 100 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER
 EASTERN KANSAS BACK INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS STATE LINE AFTER 4 PM...MOVING
THROUGH THE WARSAW...BOLIVAR...SPRINGFIELD AND REEDS SPRING AREAS
BY 8 PM AND THE EASTERN OZARKS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

 SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
 COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WIND
 SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO MAINTAIN THE
 RISK OF TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS
 TO 70 MPH. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
 TO COMBINE INTO A SQUALL LINE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WITH THIS SQUALL LINE WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THE
LINE OF STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

 IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
 IS EXPECTED AS WELL. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL
 ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN WITHIN
 THIS ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO RAPID RAINFALL ACCUMULATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
  ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT.
  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WHEATLAND               37.95N  93.40W
03/31/2008                   HICKORY            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOMES FLOODED SENIOR HOUSING ESTIMATED

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S SENECA              36.78N  94.61W
03/31/2008                   NEWTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 43 SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
313 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUFFALO                 37.64N  93.09W
03/31/2008                   DALLAS             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALL ROADS TO BUFFALO CLOSED BECAUSE OF STORM DAMMAGE

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUFFALO                 37.64N 93.09W
03/31/2008                   DALLAS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL STRUCTURES ON THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN ARE ON THE
            GROUND. THESE INCLUDE AN APARTMENT COMPLEX, A GAS
            STATION, AN ANTIQUE MALL, AND FIVE TO SEVEN HOUSES. ON
            THE EAST SIDE OF TOWN, THE SUPERIOR GEAR BOX COMPANY
            SUSTAINED DAMAGE. TWO SEMI TRUCKS HAVE ROLLED OVER IN
            FRONT OF THE COMPANY. NO REPORTED INJURIES AT THIS TIME.
            BUILDING TO BUILDING SEARCHS ARE IN PROGRESS.

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
03/31/2008                   GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS STREETS ACROSS THE SPRINGFIELD AREA ARE REPORED
            FLOODED. SOME OF THE STREETS ARE BECOMING
            IMPASSABLE...ESPECIALLY THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

&&

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     TORNADO          3 S MILLER              37.17N 93.84W
03/31/2008                   LAWRENCE           MO   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY TEAM DETERMINED
            THAT AN EF-0 TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN ABOUT 3 MILES
            SOUTH OF MILLER. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 68 MPH...WITH A
            DAMAGE PATH 40 YARDS WIDE AND 250 YARDS LONG. MINOR
            DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO A HAY BARN A HOME AND TOPPED SOME
            TREES...A POWER POLE WAS SNAPPED OFF.

&&

DCRAMER