Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 311304
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
803 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC011-015-039-057-085-097-145-167-185-217-311900-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-080331T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-
POLK MO-CEDAR MO-VERNON MO-HICKORY MO-ST. CLAIR MO-BENTON MO-
NEWTON MO-
803 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
BARTON...BENTON...BOURBON...CEDAR...CHEROKEE...CRAWFORD...HICKORY...
JASPER...NEWTON...NORTHWESTERN DADE...NORTHWESTERN POLK...ST. CLAIR
AND VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 754 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS 
MOVING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS HAVE NOT SEEN 
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS MORNING...THE SET UP OF TRAINING 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL RATES WILL 
LIKELY DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE 
ACROSS THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE...TO LOCALLY THREE 
INCHES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE WARNED AREA BEFORE 2 PM. DUE TO 
THE SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT FLOODING...RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY 
RAINFALL WILL BE FAST AND WILL LIKELY FLOOD LOW WATER CROSSINGS 
QUICKLY. 

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SPRINGFIELD.

LAT...LON 3802 9507 3804 9408 3822 9404 3822 9353
      3852 9351 3852 9314 3783 9319 3729 9406
      3678 9409 3676 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1303Z 180DEG 0KT 3768 9409

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 311444
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
935 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC011-015-039-057-085-097-145-167-185-217-311900-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-080331T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-
POLK MO-CEDAR MO-VERNON MO-HICKORY MO-ST. CLAIR MO-BENTON MO-
NEWTON MO-
935 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
BARTON...BENTON...BOURBON...CEDAR...CHEROKEE...CRAWFORD...HICKORY...
JASPER...NEWTON...NORTHWESTERN DADE...NORTHWESTERN POLK...ST. CLAIR
AND VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 928 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
BETWEEN ONE HALF TO LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE WARNED AREA SINCE 8 AM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED 
ALONG A LINE FROM WALNUT KANSAS...NORTHEAST TO NEVADA...EL DORADO 
SPRINGS AND LOWRY CITY MISSOURI. ANOTHER AREA OF ONE HALF TO LOCALLY 
ONE INCH OF RAIN FELL FROM BAXTER SPRINGS KANSAS...NORTHEAST TO 
JOPLIN...CARTHAGE AND GREENFIELD MISSOURI SINCE 8 AM. 
ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH...HOWEVER 
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS 
THE WARNED AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND FLOODING. 

SOME SECONDARY STREETS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST 
KANSAS WERE BEGINNING TO FLOOD AS LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT WERE 
REPORTING MINOR FLOODING AS OF 9 AM.   

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. 

LAT...LON 3802 9507 3804 9408 3822 9404 3822 9353
      3852 9351 3852 9314 3783 9319 3729 9406
      3678 9409 3676 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1435Z 180DEG 0KT 3768 9409

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 311624
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1117 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC011-015-039-057-085-097-145-167-185-217-311900-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-080331T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-
POLK MO-CEDAR MO-VERNON MO-HICKORY MO-ST. CLAIR MO-BENTON MO-
NEWTON MO-
1117 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
BARTON...BENTON...BOURBON...CEDAR...CHEROKEE...CRAWFORD...HICKORY...
JASPER...NEWTON...NORTHWESTERN DADE...NORTHWESTERN POLK...ST. CLAIR
AND VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 1111 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
LARGE AREA OF ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN GIRARD...EL 
DORADO SPRINGS...NEVADA AND WALNUT SINCE 8 AM. STREAMS AND CREEKS 
DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL ARE PAWNEE CREEK...DRY WOOD 
CREEK...LIGHTNING CREEK...WALNUT CREEK AND HICKORY CREEK. THESE 
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY BE FLOWING OVER THEIR BANKS AND 
CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. 

ANOTHER AREA OF ONE HALF TO LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL FROM 
BAXTER SPRINGS KANSAS...NORTHEAST TO JOPLIN...CARTHAGE AND DADEVILLE 
MISSOURI SINCE 8 AM. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WERE LESS THAN ONE HALF 
INCH...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF AND 
FLOODING. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE 
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3802 9507 3804 9408 3822 9404 3822 9353
      3852 9351 3852 9314 3783 9319 3729 9406
      3678 9409 3676 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 180DEG 0KT 3768 9409

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 311759
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1248 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC011-015-039-057-085-097-145-167-185-217-311900-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-080331T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-
POLK MO-CEDAR MO-VERNON MO-HICKORY MO-ST. CLAIR MO-BENTON MO-
NEWTON MO-
1248 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
BARTON...BENTON...BOURBON...CEDAR...CHEROKEE...CRAWFORD...HICKORY...
JASPER...NEWTON...NORTHWESTERN DADE...NORTHWESTERN POLK...ST. CLAIR
AND VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 1243 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. SEVERAL ROADS WERE REPORTED FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE NEAR THE 
TOWNS OF WARSAW...NEVADA AND EL DORADO SPRINGS. 

A LARGE AREA OF TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL ALONG A LINE FROM 
NEAR WALNUT KANSAS...NORTHEAST ACROSS NEVADA...EL DORADO SPRINGS 
MISSOURI SINCE 8 AM. DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...THE BASINS OF 
THE DRY WOOD CREEK...LIGHTNING CREEK...PAWNEE CREEK AND WALNUT CREEK 
WILL LIKELY BE FLOODED WITH SEVERAL ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE NEAR THEM. 
 
SURROUNDING THE AREA OF TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL...AMOUNTS OF 
ONE HALF TO LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE WARNED AREA 
SINCE 8 AM. THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED IN TIME 
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CONTINUED RUNOFF AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY 
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. 

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED 
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

LAT...LON 3802 9507 3804 9408 3822 9404 3822 9353
      3852 9351 3852 9314 3783 9319 3729 9406
      3678 9409 3676 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 180DEG 0KT 3768 9409

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS53 KSGF 311847
FFWSGF
KSC011-021-037-MOC011-015-039-057-085-097-145-167-185-217-010100-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-080401T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  CEDAR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
  HICKORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  NORTHWESTERN DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
  ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
  VERNON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

* AT 132 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT  
  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED 
  AREA. SINCE 8 AM...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE AVERAGED BETWEEN TWO AND 
  3.5 INCHES AROUND THE COMMUNITIES OF GARLAND AND ARCADIA 
  KANSAS...AS WELL AS DEERFIELD...NEVADA...WALKER AND EL DORDADO 
  SPRINGS MISSOURI. DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...THE BASINS OF
  THE DRY WOOD CREEK...LIGHTNING CREEK...PAWNEE CREEK AND WALNUT 
  CREEK WILL LIKELY BE FLOODED WITH SEVERAL ROADWAYS IMPASSABLE NEAR 
  THEM. SURROUNDING THIS AREA...AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO LOCALLY 1.5 
  INCHES WERE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF THE WARNED AREA SINCE 8 AM.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
  FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS 
  OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED 
  BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A 
  FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3802 9507 3804 9408 3822 9404 3822 9353
      3852 9351 3852 9314 3783 9319 3729 9406
      3678 9409 3676 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 311857
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
151 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC011-015-039-057-085-097-145-167-185-217-010100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-080401T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-
POLK MO-CEDAR MO-VERNON MO-HICKORY MO-ST. CLAIR MO-BENTON MO-
NEWTON MO-
151 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
BARTON...BENTON...BOURBON...CEDAR...CHEROKEE...CRAWFORD...HICKORY...
JASPER...NEWTON...NORTHWESTERN DADE...NORTHWESTERN POLK...ST. CLAIR
AND VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 146 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN EXCESSIVE IN A LARGE AREA OF THE 
WARNED AREA WITH LOCALIZED TWO TO FOUR INCH TOTALS NEAR NEVADA AND 
EL DORADO SPRINGS MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED 
IN THE NEVADA...EL DORADO SPRINGS AND OSCEOLA AREAS...RUNOFF IS NOT 
COMPLETE AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RAPID RISES ALONG AREA STREAMS 
AND CREEKS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNED 
AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COMMUNITIES OF JOPLIN...GREENFIELD AND 
STOCKTON MISSOURI...ANOTHER ONE HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH OF RAINFALL 
WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER 
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND MOVE NORTHEAST. 

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3802 9507 3804 9408 3822 9404 3822 9353
      3852 9351 3852 9314 3783 9319 3729 9406
      3678 9409 3676 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 180DEG 0KT 3768 9409

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 312138
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
424 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC011-015-039-057-085-097-145-167-185-217-010100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-080401T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-
POLK MO-CEDAR MO-VERNON MO-HICKORY MO-ST. CLAIR MO-BENTON MO-
NEWTON MO-
424 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
BARTON...BENTON...BOURBON...CEDAR...CHEROKEE...CRAWFORD...HICKORY...
JASPER...NEWTON...NORTHWESTERN DADE...NORTHWESTERN POLK...ST. CLAIR
AND VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 418 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. RUNOFF FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY 
AFTERNOON HAD CAUSED CREEKS...STREAMS AND AREA RIVERS TO RISE 
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SOME RIVERS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA...HOWEVER RUNOFF IS NOT COMPLETE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO 
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS THROUGH THE EARLY 
EVENING HOURS. 

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED 
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

LAT...LON 3802 9507 3804 9408 3822 9404 3822 9353
      3852 9351 3852 9314 3783 9319 3729 9406
      3678 9409 3676 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 180DEG 0KT 3768 9409

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 312326
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSC011-021-037-MOC011-015-039-057-085-097-145-167-185-217-010100-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-080401T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-DADE MO-BARTON MO-
POLK MO-CEDAR MO-VERNON MO-HICKORY MO-ST. CLAIR MO-BENTON MO-
NEWTON MO-
625 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
BARTON...BENTON...BOURBON...CEDAR...CHEROKEE...CRAWFORD...HICKORY...
JASPER...NEWTON...NORTHWESTERN DADE...NORTHWESTERN POLK...ST. CLAIR
AND VERNON COUNTIES...

AT 624 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAD EXITED THE AREA. 
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE 
FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO 
CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER 
TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A 
VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3802 9507 3804 9408 3822 9404 3822 9353
      3852 9351 3852 9314 3783 9319 3729 9406
      3678 9409 3676 9461 3698 9463 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 180DEG 0KT 3768 9409

$$

TERRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CONCENTRATED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
THE STORMS ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SUB SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE PERSISTENT SUPERCELL OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE NORTH OF TULSA. THIS STORM HAS TAKEN
MORE OF EASTWARD TURN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WHILE THIS STORM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IT MAY SUSTAIN SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL AS IT TRACKS INTO MCDONALD AND
NEWTON COUNTIES AROUND 9 AM. SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL
WITH THIS STORM AS LOW LEVEL HELICITIES NEAR 300 M2/S2 ARE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE STORM. THIS STORM WILL MONITORED CLOSELY.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN
ELEVATED SITUATIONAL AWARENESS IS ADVISED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST WITH THE AID OF AN 850MB LOW LEVEL
JET. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GAGE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR
WICHITA KANSAS TO NEAR KANSAS CITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS A MOIST AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE KICKED INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE NAM
AND GFS PROGGING LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR 7 DEGREES
CELSIUS/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KTS...AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
LINE FROM NEAR JOPLIN TO SPRINGFIELD TO BRANSON WHERE THE GFS AND
NAM MODELS PROG 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES GENERALLY 300-400 M2/S2.
ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THUS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME TORNADIC.
FACTORS THE COULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES INCLUDE
LIMITED HEATING AND SURFACE CAPE DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOLER AND DRY AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ANGLE

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SHORTWAVES RIDE THE QUASI
ZONAL FLOW AND INTERACT WITH A MEANDERING EAST-WEST ORIENTED
BAROLINOC ZONE. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASE
OVERTOP A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FROM
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EAST ALONG THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER RAINFALL RATES.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER EXIST BUT IS DEPENDENT
UPON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. IF THE WARM SECTOR LIFTS
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS PROGGED BY THE GFS THE POTENTIAL
OF SURFACE BASED STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WOULD INCREASE. IN THE
VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AND AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING THAT WILL LIKELY
TRANSPIRE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS...SERIOUS FLOODING COULD UNFOLD DURING MID AND LATE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHERS WITH FLOOD RELATED CONCERNS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST...AND RIVER STAGES AND
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROS EASTERN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOSTER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN
A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING AS THE WATER DRAINS INTO CREEKS..STREAMS AND RIVERS
THERE WILL BE RAPID RISES IN LEVELS DUE TO THE SATURATED SOIL AND
RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALONG A STALLED FRONT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS
RAINFALL ON TOP OF RAINFALL RECEIVED TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD
AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING...AND QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
AND SERIOUS RIVER FLOODING.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHERS WITH FLOOD RELATED CONCERNS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST...AND RIVER STAGES AND
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

ANGLE/FOSTER

&&

.CLIMATE...

MARCH 2008 WILL BE RECORDED AS A HISTORICAL WET MONTH. THE TABLE
BELOW LISTS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED SO FAR AT EACH
STATION ALONG WITH THE CURRENT RECORD RANK AND THE RECORD MARCH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG WITH THE YEAR.

LOCATION     MARCH PRECIP SO FAR   CURRENT RANK   MARCH RECORDS

SPRINGFIELD         8.71              5TH         9.09 1935 (1)
                                                   7.87 1990 (5)
JOPLIN              5.93              8TH         9.04 1973 (1)
                                                   5.93 1975 (8)
WEST PLAINS        13.57              1ST         9.87 2002 (1)
VICHY ROLLA         8.31              1ST         7.41 1945 (1)

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
551 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...

  DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
  LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.
  AND FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG AND
  NORTH OF A LINE FROM ANDERSON TO SPRINGFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH
  THROUGH 10 AM. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
  SIZE OF QUARTERS AND HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
  AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN KANSAS. DISCRETE
  SUPERCELLS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE
  POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES SOUTHWEST OF
  A LINE NEAR JOPLIN TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD TO NEAR BRANSON.

  A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
  MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. QUARTER
  SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND FLASH FLOODING FROM
  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
  THE ENTIRE AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
  SQUALL LINE.

  DISCUSSION:

  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
  THE WESTERN OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
  INTO THE PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
  MOIST AND UNSTABLE RESULTING IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
  WINDS...TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
  OF RAINFALL.

  THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
  MORNING ENDING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
  THE OUTLOOK AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT. THERE WILL
  BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE