Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 311259
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
759 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSC011-037-311330-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-080331T1330Z/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-
759 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR BOURBON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 754 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FORT SCOTT TO GREENBUSH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GIRARD BY 815 AM CDT.
  FRONTENAC BY 820 AM CDT.
  ENGLEVALE AND ARMA BY 825 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF BEULAH...LONE OAK...RINGO...POLK...FRANKLIN...YALE AND
CROWEBURG ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...IF YOU
ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3781 9508 3799 9464 3771 9464 3746 9462
      3736 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1259Z 240DEG 32KT 3783 9461 3747 9498

$$

FOSTER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 311338
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
838 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSC011-037-311348-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-080331T1330Z/
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-
838 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BOURBON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES
EXPIRES AT 830 AM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING ARE EXITING THE WARNED
AREA...THUS THE WARNING IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3781 9508 3799 9464 3771 9464 3746 9462
      3736 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1259Z 240DEG 32KT 3783 9461 3747 9498

$$

FOSTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CONCENTRATED EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
THE STORMS ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SUB SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE PERSISTENT SUPERCELL OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE NORTH OF TULSA. THIS STORM HAS TAKEN
MORE OF EASTWARD TURN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. WHILE THIS STORM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IT MAY SUSTAIN SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL AS IT TRACKS INTO MCDONALD AND
NEWTON COUNTIES AROUND 9 AM. SOME CONCERN FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL
WITH THIS STORM AS LOW LEVEL HELICITIES NEAR 300 M2/S2 ARE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE STORM. THIS STORM WILL MONITORED CLOSELY.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN
ELEVATED SITUATIONAL AWARENESS IS ADVISED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST WITH THE AID OF AN 850MB LOW LEVEL
JET. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GAGE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR
WICHITA KANSAS TO NEAR KANSAS CITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS A MOIST AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE KICKED INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE NAM
AND GFS PROGGING LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR 7 DEGREES
CELSIUS/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KTS...AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
LINE FROM NEAR JOPLIN TO SPRINGFIELD TO BRANSON WHERE THE GFS AND
NAM MODELS PROG 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES GENERALLY 300-400 M2/S2.
ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THUS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME TORNADIC.
FACTORS THE COULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES INCLUDE
LIMITED HEATING AND SURFACE CAPE DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOLER AND DRY AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ANGLE

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SHORTWAVES RIDE THE QUASI
ZONAL FLOW AND INTERACT WITH A MEANDERING EAST-WEST ORIENTED
BAROLINOC ZONE. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASE
OVERTOP A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FROM
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EAST ALONG THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER RAINFALL RATES.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER EXIST BUT IS DEPENDENT
UPON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. IF THE WARM SECTOR LIFTS
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS PROGGED BY THE GFS THE POTENTIAL
OF SURFACE BASED STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WOULD INCREASE. IN THE
VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AND AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING THAT WILL LIKELY
TRANSPIRE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS...SERIOUS FLOODING COULD UNFOLD DURING MID AND LATE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHERS WITH FLOOD RELATED CONCERNS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST...AND RIVER STAGES AND
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROS EASTERN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES THIS
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL RISE THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. IN ADDITION GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOSTER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN
A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING AS THE WATER DRAINS INTO CREEKS..STREAMS AND RIVERS
THERE WILL BE RAPID RISES IN LEVELS DUE TO THE SATURATED SOIL AND
RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALONG A STALLED FRONT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS
RAINFALL ON TOP OF RAINFALL RECEIVED TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD
AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING...AND QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
AND SERIOUS RIVER FLOODING.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHERS WITH FLOOD RELATED CONCERNS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST...AND RIVER STAGES AND
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

ANGLE/FOSTER

&&

.CLIMATE...

MARCH 2008 WILL BE RECORDED AS A HISTORICAL WET MONTH. THE TABLE
BELOW LISTS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED SO FAR AT EACH
STATION ALONG WITH THE CURRENT RECORD RANK AND THE RECORD MARCH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG WITH THE YEAR.

LOCATION     MARCH PRECIP SO FAR   CURRENT RANK   MARCH RECORDS

SPRINGFIELD         8.71              5TH         9.09 1935 (1)
                                                   7.87 1990 (5)
JOPLIN              5.93              8TH         9.04 1973 (1)
                                                   5.93 1975 (8)
WEST PLAINS        13.57              1ST         9.87 2002 (1)
VICHY ROLLA         8.31              1ST         7.41 1945 (1)

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
551 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...

  DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.
  LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.
  AND FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG AND
  NORTH OF A LINE FROM ANDERSON TO SPRINGFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH
  THROUGH 10 AM. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE
  SIZE OF QUARTERS AND HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
  AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN KANSAS. DISCRETE
  SUPERCELLS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE
  POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES SOUTHWEST OF
  A LINE NEAR JOPLIN TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD TO NEAR BRANSON.

  A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
  MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. QUARTER
  SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND FLASH FLOODING FROM
  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
  THE ENTIRE AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
  SQUALL LINE.

  DISCUSSION:

  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
  THE WESTERN OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
  INTO THE PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
  MOIST AND UNSTABLE RESULTING IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
  WINDS...TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING WITH WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
  OF RAINFALL.

  THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
  MORNING ENDING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
  THE OUTLOOK AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT. THERE WILL
  BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE