Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 311952
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

MOC145-312002-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-080331T2000Z/
NEWTON MO-
252 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NEWTON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING IS EXITING THE WARNED AREA...
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3676 9463 3699 9463 3701 9462 3705 9455
      3706 9437 3706 9410 3705 9406 3675 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 245DEG 52KT 3720 9355

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
112 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN
ELEVATED SITUATIONAL AWARENESS IS ADVISED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST WITH THE AID OF AN 850MB LOW LEVEL
JET. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG A
SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GAGE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR
WICHITA KANSAS TO NEAR KANSAS CITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS A MOIST AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE KICKED INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE NAM
AND GFS PROGGING LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR 7 DEGREES
CELSIUS/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KTS...AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
LINE FROM NEAR JOPLIN TO SPRINGFIELD TO BRANSON WHERE THE GFS AND
NAM MODELS PROG 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES GENERALLY 300-400 M2/S2.
ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THUS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME TORNADIC.
FACTORS THE COULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES INCLUDE
LIMITED HEATING AND SURFACE CAPE DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

THE CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOLER AND DRY AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ANGLE

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SHORTWAVES RIDE THE QUASI
ZONAL FLOW AND INTERACT WITH A MEANDERING EAST-WEST ORIENTED
BAROLINOC ZONE. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASE
OVERTOP A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FROM
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EAST ALONG THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER RAINFALL RATES.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER EXIST BUT IS DEPENDENT
UPON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. IF THE WARM SECTOR LIFTS
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AS PROGGED BY THE GFS THE POTENTIAL
OF SURFACE BASED STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WOULD INCREASE. IN THE
VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AND AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING THAT WILL LIKELY
TRANSPIRE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS...SERIOUS FLOODING COULD UNFOLD DURING MID AND LATE WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHERS WITH FLOOD RELATED CONCERNS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST...AND RIVER STAGES AND
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRON WILL AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z AT JLN AND 02Z AT
SGF. CEILINGS AND VISBILITIES WILL BE IFR TO LIFR NEAR
THUNDERSTROMS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITION AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
KTS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. GUSTY SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT WITH A HIGH OVERCAST
EXPECTED.

FOSTER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN
A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING AS THE WATER DRAINS INTO CREEKS..STREAMS AND RIVERS
THERE WILL BE RAPID RISES IN LEVELS DUE TO THE SATURATED SOIL AND
RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALONG A STALLED FRONT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS
RAINFALL ON TOP OF RAINFALL RECEIVED TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD
AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING...AND QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
AND SERIOUS RIVER FLOODING.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHERS WITH FLOOD RELATED CONCERNS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST...AND RIVER STAGES AND
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

ANGLE/FOSTER

&&

.CLIMATE...

MARCH 2008 WILL BE RECORDED AS A HISTORICAL WET MONTH. THE TABLE
BELOW LISTS THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION RECEIVED SO FAR AT EACH
STATION ALONG WITH THE CURRENT RECORD RANK AND THE RECORD MARCH
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG WITH THE YEAR.

LOCATION     MARCH PRECIP SO FAR   CURRENT RANK   MARCH RECORDS

SPRINGFIELD         8.71              5TH         9.09 1935 (1)
                                                   7.87 1990 (5)
JOPLIN              5.93              8TH         9.04 1973 (1)
                                                   5.93 1975 (8)
WEST PLAINS        13.57              1ST         9.87 2002 (1)
VICHY ROLLA         8.31              1ST         7.41 1945 (1)

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
104 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
104 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 DAMAGING WIND UP TO 70 MPH.
 LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
 ISOLATED TORNADOES.
 FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
 THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
 SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
 CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
 CASSVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH THROUGH 400 PM...THIS
 INCLUDES EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
 MISSOURI.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESSIVELY SPREAD TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO
SPRINGFIELD TO OSAGE BEACH AFTER 300 PM.

 THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
 THROUGH THE AREA. AT 100 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER
 EASTERN KANSAS BACK INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS STATE LINE AFTER 4 PM...MOVING
THROUGH THE WARSAW...BOLIVAR...SPRINGFIELD AND REEDS SPRING AREAS
BY 8 PM AND THE EASTERN OZARKS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

 SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
 COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WIND
 SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO MAINTAIN THE
 RISK OF TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS
 TO 70 MPH. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
 TO COMBINE INTO A SQUALL LINE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WITH THIS SQUALL LINE WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THE
LINE OF STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

 IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
 IS EXPECTED AS WELL. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL
 ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN WITHIN
 THIS ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO RAPID RAINFALL ACCUMULATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  ANOTHER ROUND OF FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
  ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT.
  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE PLEASANT HOPE      37.41N  93.21W
03/31/2008                   POLK               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BARN DESTROYED...TIN WRAPPED AROUND TREES AND WINDOWS
            BLOWN OUT OF HOME.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1248 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EL DORADO SPRINGS       37.88N  94.02W
03/31/2008                   CEDAR              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED TO THROUGH TRAFFIC ACROSS TOWN.
            POSSIBLE EVACUATIONS FOR SOME HONES IN LOW AREAS NEAR
            TOWN.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1250 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WARSAW                  38.24N  93.38W
03/31/2008                   BENTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 83 CLOSED TO TRAFFIC DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1252 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NEVADA                  37.84N  94.35W
03/31/2008                   VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER REPORTED OVER HIGHWAY 54 NEAR NEVADA.

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
115 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     HAIL             JOPLIN                  37.08N  94.51W
03/31/2008  E0.75 INCH       JASPER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
116 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 PM     TSTM WND GST     JOPLIN                  37.08N  94.51W
03/31/2008  M55 MPH          JASPER             MO   ASOS

&&

HATCH