Alert archive / Virginia / Tornado Watches in 2006
Tornado Watch 868
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 16, 2006, 10:44 AM EST for 6 states. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 16, 2006, 10:44 AM EST (15:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 16, 2006, 6:00 PM EST
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 70 kt
All 151 counties
Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Camden County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Craven County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Warren County, NC, Washington County, NC, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, York County, PA, Accomack County, VA, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA
The radar
The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 60%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 70%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 90%
Warnings issued inside it
31 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 11:02 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Nash | 13 min |
| Nov 16, 11:14 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Halifax | 31 min |
| Nov 16, 11:17 AM EST | Tornado Warning | MHX | Greene | 43 min |
| Nov 16, 11:44 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Edgecombe, Wilson | 16 min |
| Nov 16, 11:45 AM EST | Tornado Warning | AKQ | Dinwiddie | 30 min |
| Nov 16, 11:58 AM EST | Tornado Warning | AKQ | Greensville, Sussex | 32 min |
| Nov 16, 12:20 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Montgomery | 55 min |
| Nov 16, 12:31 PM EST | Tornado Warning | AKQ | Hanover, Henrico, King William | 29 min |
| Nov 16, 12:31 PM EST | Tornado Warning | LWX | Spotsylvania, City of Fredericksburg | 13 min |
| Nov 16, 12:40 PM EST | Tornado Warning | LWX | Stafford | 18 min |
| Nov 16, 12:46 PM EST | Tornado Warning | CTP | Franklin | 29 min |
| Nov 16, 12:55 PM EST | Tornado Warning | LWX | Prince William | 22 min |
| Nov 16, 1:00 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Juniata, Mifflin, Perry | 60 min |
| Nov 16, 1:04 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Arlington, Fairfax, City of Alexandria, City of Fairfax, City of Falls Church | 41 min |
| Nov 16, 1:12 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Adams, Cumberland, Franklin | 48 min |
| Nov 16, 1:23 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Montgomery | 52 min |
| Nov 16, 1:56 PM EST | Flash Flood Warning | AKQ | City of Richmond | 2 hr |
| Nov 16, 2:02 PM EST | Tornado Warning | AKQ | Charles City, Prince George | 28 min |
| Nov 16, 2:23 PM EST | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York | 4 hr |
| Nov 16, 2:24 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | York | 36 min |
| Nov 16, 2:35 PM EST | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Baltimore, City of Baltimore | 3 hr |
| Nov 16, 2:45 PM EST | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Prince George's | 3 hr |
| Nov 16, 2:48 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lancaster | 57 min |
| Nov 16, 3:14 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lebanon | 31 min |
| Nov 16, 3:35 PM EST | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Columbia, Schuylkill | 3 hr |
| Nov 16, 3:45 PM EST | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Cumberland | 3 hr |
| Nov 16, 3:51 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Schuylkill | 39 min |
| Nov 16, 4:44 PM EST | Flash Flood Warning | PHI | Berks | 3 hr |
| Nov 16, 5:00 PM EST | Flash Flood Warning | PHI | Cecil | 3 hr |
| Nov 16, 5:08 PM EST | Tornado Warning | MHX | Dare | 37 min |
| Nov 16, 5:24 PM EST | Flash Flood Warning | PHI | Bucks, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton | 3 hr |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 6 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -72 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 610 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 63 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 471 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 481 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 10:16 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent, New Castle, Sussex | 59 min |
| Nov 16, 3:11 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent, New Castle, Sussex | 94 min |
| Nov 16, 1:24 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Warren | 2 hr |
| Nov 15, 9:14 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brunswick, Columbus | 61 min |
| Nov 15, 11:58 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anson, Bladen, Brunswick, Chatham, Columbus, Cumberland and 18 more | 8 hr |
| Nov 16, 12:32 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Stanly, Union | 58 min |
| Nov 16, 2:28 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alamance, Caswell, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin, Granville and 7 more | 9 hr |
| Nov 16, 3:17 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden and 46 more | 118 min |
| Nov 16, 4:38 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford and 2 more | 6 hr |
| Nov 16, 6:42 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret, Chowan and 26 more | 93 min |
| Nov 16, 7:17 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson and 22 more | 118 min |
| Nov 16, 7:51 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bladen, Brunswick, Chatham, Columbus, Cumberland, Harnett and 13 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Virginia, 2006Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2006Tornado Watches in Maryland, 2006Every tornado watch in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.