Alert archive / Virginia / Tornado Watches in 2006

Tornado Watch 866

November 16, 20068 counties in North Carolina; 19 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 16, 2006, 4:38 AM EST for 8 counties in North Carolina; 19 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 16, 2006, 4:38 AM EST (09:38 UTC)
Expired: Nov 16, 2006, 10:59 AM EST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 0.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 27 counties

Bertie County, NC, Camden County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Gates County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Accomack County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, York County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 10%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -56 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 935 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 129 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 15, 9:14 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brunswick, Columbus	61 min
Nov 15, 11:58 PM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Anson, Bladen, Brunswick, Chatham, Columbus, Cumberland and 18 more	8 hr
Nov 16, 12:32 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Stanly, Union	58 min
Nov 16, 2:28 AM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alamance, Caswell, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin, Granville and 7 more	9 hr
Nov 16, 3:17 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden and 46 more	118 min
Nov 16, 6:42 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Bertie, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret, Chowan and 26 more	93 min
Nov 16, 7:17 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson and 22 more	118 min
Nov 16, 7:51 AM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bladen, Brunswick, Chatham, Columbus, Cumberland, Harnett and 13 more	6 hr
Nov 16, 10:16 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 23 more	59 min
Nov 16, 10:44 AM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 23 more	7 hr
Nov 16, 3:11 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Currituck, Dare, Gates and 6 more	94 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Virginia, 2006 Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2006 Every tornado watch in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.