Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2006
Mesoscale Discussion 2221
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 16, 2006, 3:17 AM EST for 52 counties in North Carolina; Georgetown County, Horry County, South Carolina; 39 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 118 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 16, 2006, 3:17 AM EST (08:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 16, 2006, 5:15 AM EST
- In force
- 118 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 93 counties
Alamance County, NC, Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Camden County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Granville County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Orange County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Pender County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Person County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Amelia County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -56 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 935 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 93 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 129 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 160817 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160817 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-161015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2221 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 AM CST THU NOV 16 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NC...EXTREME ERN SC...S-CENTRAL/SERN VA. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 863...864... VALID 160817Z - 161015Z QUASI-LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW 863 THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...WITH SOME PORTIONS EXITING WW BY APPROXIMATELY 10Z ACROSS E-CENTRAL NC. PROSPECTIVE INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS AND KINEMATIC PROFILES -- ACROSS NC COASTAL PLAIN AND TIDEWATER REGION...NWD INTO SERN VA -- ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SVR. THEREFORE ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS E OF 863 AND 864. ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND ACROSS PORTIONS SC/NC...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MIDMORNING HOURS AS MCS CROSSES WWS. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT MRGL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT FROM NERN NC INTO SERN VA. STRONG FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CINH EVIDENT IN RUC SOUNDINGS ACROSS NC/VA BORDER REGION...AND SUSTAIN ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN LINEAR...STRONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE. 06Z CHS RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS FARTHER N SUGGEST 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS 50-60 KT...AND 0-1 KM SRH COMMONLY 300-400 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLONES...EITHER IN FORM OF EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP CIRCULATIONS OR SMALLER MESOVORTICES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS. THEREFORE...SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..EDWARDS.. 11/16/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS... 33017938 33507950 34297912 35177940 36347941 36877947 37687838 37557683 36917599 35697544 35227553 35057602 34587654 34697680 34457750 33837797 33857853 33467908 33157920
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 9:14 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brunswick, Columbus | 61 min |
| Nov 15, 11:58 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anson, Bladen, Brunswick, Chatham, Columbus, Cumberland and 18 more | 8 hr |
| Nov 16, 12:32 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Stanly, Union | 58 min |
| Nov 16, 2:28 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alamance, Caswell, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin, Granville and 7 more | 9 hr |
| Nov 16, 4:38 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford and 2 more | 6 hr |
| Nov 16, 6:42 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret, Chowan and 26 more | 93 min |
| Nov 16, 7:17 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson and 22 more | 118 min |
| Nov 16, 7:51 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bladen, Brunswick, Chatham, Columbus, Cumberland, Harnett and 13 more | 6 hr |
| Nov 16, 10:16 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 23 more | 59 min |
| Nov 16, 10:44 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 23 more | 7 hr |
| Nov 16, 3:11 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Currituck, Dare, Gates and 6 more | 94 min |
| Nov 15, 7:03 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Beaufort, Berkeley, Charleston and 4 more | 57 min |
| Nov 15, 7:08 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Allendale, Beaufort, Colleton, Hampton, Jasper | 8 hr |
| Nov 15, 9:29 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Aiken, Bamberg, Barnwell, Berkeley, Calhoun, Charleston and 14 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2006Every mesoscale discussion in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.