Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2006

Tornado Watch 863

November 15, 200624 counties in North Carolina; 8 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 15, 2006, 11:58 PM EST for 24 counties in North Carolina; 8 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 15, 2006, 11:58 PM EST (04:58 UTC)
Expired: Nov 16, 2006, 8:00 AM EST
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 32 counties

Anson County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Pender County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Wake County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 30%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

14 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 16, 12:02 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Anson, Davidson, Stanly	43 min
Nov 16, 12:45 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Davidson, Randolph	45 min
Nov 16, 12:59 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Anson	31 min
Nov 16, 1:14 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	Darlington, Florence	61 min
Nov 16, 1:21 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	Williamsburg	54 min
Nov 16, 1:36 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Montgomery	24 min
Nov 16, 2:14 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Alamance, Randolph	31 min
Nov 16, 2:15 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	Williamsburg	51 min
Nov 16, 2:22 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	Georgetown	53 min
Nov 16, 4:30 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston, Wake	30 min
Nov 16, 6:20 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	Columbus	40 min
Nov 16, 6:28 AM EST	Tornado Warning	ILM	Columbus	18 min
Nov 16, 6:40 AM EST	Tornado Warning	ILM	Bladen, Pender	36 min
Nov 16, 7:34 AM EST	Tornado Warning	RAH	Wayne	41 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1176 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 394 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 496 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 15, 9:14 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brunswick, Columbus	61 min
Nov 16, 12:32 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Stanly, Union	58 min
Nov 16, 2:28 AM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alamance, Caswell, Durham, Edgecombe, Franklin, Granville and 7 more	9 hr
Nov 16, 3:17 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden and 46 more	118 min
Nov 16, 4:38 AM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford and 2 more	6 hr
Nov 16, 6:42 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Bertie, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret, Chowan and 26 more	93 min
Nov 16, 7:17 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson and 22 more	118 min
Nov 16, 7:51 AM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bladen, Brunswick, Chatham, Columbus, Cumberland, Harnett and 13 more	6 hr
Nov 16, 10:16 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 23 more	59 min
Nov 16, 10:44 AM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 23 more	7 hr
Nov 16, 3:11 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Currituck, Dare, Gates and 6 more	94 min
Nov 15, 7:03 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allendale, Bamberg, Barnwell, Beaufort, Berkeley, Charleston and 4 more	57 min
Nov 15, 7:08 PM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Allendale, Beaufort, Colleton, Hampton, Jasper	8 hr
Nov 15, 9:29 PM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Aiken, Bamberg, Barnwell, Berkeley, Calhoun, Charleston and 14 more	5 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2006 Tornado Watches in South Carolina, 2006 Every tornado watch in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.