Severe Thunderstorm Warning 456, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
945 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
VERY ACTIVE MORNING WITH WATCHES COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA. BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS PULLING OUT OF WESTERN THIRD AND
SEEING SOME CLEARING APPROACHING. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE ADJUSTING
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY OR VERY SLOW
RISE. SO WILL ADJUST IF AND WHERE NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 345 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006)

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ANSON...DAVIDSON...
MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND...SCOTLAND AND STANLY COUNTIES. THE
TORNADO WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL ENHANCE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS
EAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH WE MAYBE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE OR TWO DEGREES OVER THE EAST BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S... THEN TURNING COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S... DROPPING TO THE 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP WILL END... CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.
CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DRIFTS SOUTH AND
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY NNE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 220...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
50 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
15Z...RESULTING IN LLWS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...
SUSTAIN WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 21 KNOTS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO THE
NORTH BY 15Z. IF CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE...COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM 12 TO 18Z IN DRY
AIR SLOT AND WITH POTENT VORTICITY ENERGY ALOFT. HOWEVER AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.  ABRUPT CLEARING BEHIND INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
618 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-171130-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
618 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ROTATING STORMS... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY...OTHERWISE SPOTTER ACTIVATION
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RHJ

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1134 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ENFIELD                 36.18N 77.67W
11/16/2006                   HALIFAX            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR THIRTEEN BRIDGES ROAD AND SORIETOWN ROAD
            NEAR ENFIELD AT 1125 AM.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1135 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TROY                    35.36N 79.89W
11/16/2006                   MONTGOMERY         NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES AT APPROXIMATELY 10 AM NEAR TROY

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1138 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LIBERTY                 35.85N 79.57W
11/16/2006                   RANDOLPH           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TOP OF CAR WASH FACILITY WAS BLOWN OFF. TREES DOWN IN
            DOWNTOWN AREA OF LIBERTY BLOWN DOWN. AWNINGS AND
            POWERLINES ALSO BLOWN DOWN.

&&

MWS