Severe Thunderstorm Warning 455, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
945 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
VERY ACTIVE MORNING WITH WATCHES COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA. BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS PULLING OUT OF WESTERN THIRD AND
SEEING SOME CLEARING APPROACHING. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE ADJUSTING
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY OR VERY SLOW
RISE. SO WILL ADJUST IF AND WHERE NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 345 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006)

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ANSON...DAVIDSON...
MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RICHMOND...SCOTLAND AND STANLY COUNTIES. THE
TORNADO WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL ENHANCE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS
EAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REACHED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH WE MAYBE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE OR TWO DEGREES OVER THE EAST BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S... THEN TURNING COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S... DROPPING TO THE 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP WILL END... CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.
CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DRIFTS SOUTH AND
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH EARLY TUESDAY. FOLLOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLEAR SKIES WILL RETURN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY NNE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 220...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
50 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
15Z...RESULTING IN LLWS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...
SUSTAIN WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 21 KNOTS.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET AS WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO THE
NORTH BY 15Z. IF CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE...COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM 12 TO 18Z IN DRY
AIR SLOT AND WITH POTENT VORTICITY ENERGY ALOFT. HOWEVER AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.  ABRUPT CLEARING BEHIND INITIAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
618 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-171130-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
618 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ROTATING STORMS... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY...OTHERWISE SPOTTER ACTIVATION
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RHJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     SMITHFIELD              35.51N 78.34W
11/16/2006                   JOHNSTON           NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AT INTERSTATE 95 AND US
            HWY 70.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1044 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW ANSONVILLE         35.05N 80.17W
11/16/2006                   ANSON              NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON RACETRACK ROAD NEAR BURNSVILLE. EVENT TIME
            IS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1046 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

NCZ010-011-026>028-043-078-161645-
EDGECOMBE-FRANKLIN-HALIFAX-NASH-WARREN-WAYNE-WILSON-
1046 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
WARREN...HALIFAX...FRANKLIN...NASH...EDGECOMBE...WILSON AND WAYNE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM EST...

AT 1046 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR WARRENTON...EAST OF LOUISBURG
...EAST OF SMITHFIELD TO NEAR MOUNT OLIVE ...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

STRONGEST STORMS ARE IN WESTERN WILSON AND SOUTHERN NASH COUNTIES.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD
RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING ONE INCH AN HOUR
DURING THE NEXT HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS...CREEKS...STEAMS AND SOME ROADS CAN BE EXPECTED.

RFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1051 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

NCZ008>010-025-026-041-042-161645-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-JOHNSTON-VANCE-WAKE-WARREN-
1051 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

...HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
WARREN...GRANVILLE...VANCE...FRANKLIN...WAKE AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES
THROUGH NOON...

AT 1051 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OXFORD TO CREEDMOOR
AND APEX...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OVER ONE INCH
PER HOUR. LOCATIONS WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS INCLUDE NORTH RALEIGH...CREEDMOOR...WAKE FOREST...
FRANKLINTON...LOUISBURG AND HENDERSON.

HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS ALL ACROSS
THE AREA. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

JO

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