Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1104 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES ADDITION OF TORNADO WATCH BOX 868 FOR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SHEAR PROFILES CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AS
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
BRIGHT BANDING ON BOTH KCCX AND KPBZ RADARS OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERESTIMATING RADAR PRECIP AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR GROUND TRUTH OBSERVATIONS FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 330 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE STATE...LEAVING EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA RAIN-FREE EARLY THIS AM. MEANWHILE...STEADY RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL OVER WESTERN PA...AS LL JET FEEDS DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME NORTHWRD FROM GULF OF MEXICO ALL THE WAY TO THE GRT LKS.
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ALREADY EVIDENT OVER LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE
RADAR AND IFLOWS INDICATE CLOSE TO 1 INCH HAS FALLEN SO FAR OVR
PORTIONS OF SOMERSET COUNTY. WILL KEEP FFA GOING OVR THIS REGION
TDY.

EXPECT BAND OF CONVECTION TO CONSOLIDATE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT LATER TDY...SWEEPING THRU THE CWA LATE AM TO LATE AFTN.
MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ATMOS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
ADVANCE OF FRONT...THUS WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. SPC
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF AREA...BUT FEEL WE NEED TO
CONTINUE MENTION OF THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
HWO...GIVEN 850 WINDS OF 60-70KTS.

SREF DATA CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION...SUGGESTING
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY EVENING. THUS...ANY SHWRS SHOULD
END EARLY THIS EVENING OVR THE EAST...AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. FURTHER
WEST...SCT -SHRA WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT AS UPPER LO
TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND LK ERIE.

AIRMASS IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHWRS OVR THE MTNS FRIDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER COULD
SPREAD -SHSN ACROSS NORTHERN PA LATE SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MREF DATA SUGGESTS CLIPPER SYSTEM REDEVELOPS OFF EAST COAST AS UPPER
LVL S/WV DIVES SOUTH AND CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE OVR THE MID ATLANTIC.
ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEPING COASTAL LO FAR EAST ENOUGH TO KEEP SIG
PRECIP EAST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...SHSN LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY S/WV
PASSAGE...MAINLY MTNS LATE SUN/MONDAY. MREF 850 TEMPS ONLY ARND -8C
MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 30S MTNS TO M40S
SUSQ VALLEY. FAIR AND MILDER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST.

AVIATION...

STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /990MB/ MOVG NEWD INTO THE OH VLY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN SHIELD /STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/
EXTENDING ALONG AN INVERTED TROF AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THROUGH THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND INTO WRN NY STATE. VSBYS AND CIGS
GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE VFR/MVFR CAT WITH AN OCNL IFR OBSERVATION
IN MODERATE RAIN OR CIG JUST SNEAKING BLW 1KFT. THE EXCEPTION NOT
SURPRISINGLY IS KJST...WHICH IS NOW DOWN TO LIFR IN UPSLOPE FLOW.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING BULK OF THE STEADY PCPN IS MOVING NWD /JUST
TO THE WEST/ OF MY FAR WESTERN TERMINALS WITH ONLY WDLY SCT SHRA
LIFTING NWD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. KCCX VAD WIND
PROFILE SHOWING 120-140 DEG LLVL WNDS AT 30-40KTS JUST OFF THE DECK
/AROUND 3KFT/ AND HAVE ADDED LLWS INTO KIPT AS TERRAIN IS
ESSENTIALLY BACKING THE SFC WIND TO MORE OF A NERLY DIR. LLWS WILL
DEC BY AFT 14Z AS ATM MIXING COMMENCES AND SFC WNDS INC.

XPECT MORE OF THE SAME VFR/MVFR CONDS TO CONTINUE WITH OCNL IFR IN
MOD/HVY RAIN OR LOW CIG PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. SFC CDFNT/TRIPLE PT
FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT NEWD BY THIS AFT AS THE MAIN SFC LOW
OCCLUDES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SFC WNDS WILL BECOME RATHER
GUSTY WITH STRONG SSERLY FLOW IN THE LLVLS. IN ADDITION...RATHER
IMPRESSIVE 50-60KTS PROGGED AT THE TOP OF THE BLYR OVER SE PA /KMDT/
ACCORDING TO THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND LLVL CONVERGENCE/FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY...ANY
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE TAPPED WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO PSBLY
SEVERE /LINE/ OF TSRA THIS AFTN. WILL LKLY INCLUDE MENTION OF CB
OR SOMETHING TO THAT EFFECT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS AFT 17Z.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ024-025-033-034 UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...TYBURSKI

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1145 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

PAZ005-010-161730-
ELK-MCKEAN-
1145 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ELK AND MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 1142 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF
KANE TO 2 MILES EAST OF DUBOIS...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR BRANDY CAMP AROUND 1150 AM...WESTLINE...
JOHNSONBURG AROUND 1155 AM...WILCOX AROUND NOON...MOUNT JEWETT...
LEWIS RUN AROUND 1210 PM...ST. MARYS...EAST BRANCH DAM...BRADFORD
AROUND 1215 PM AND KINZUA BRIDGE STATE PARK AROUND 1225 PM.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE
219...STATE ROAD 46...STATE ROAD 59...STATE ROAD 255.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

FORECASTER: TYBURSKI

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