Alert archive / Mississippi / Tornado Watches in 2006

Tornado Watch 853

November 15, 200622 parishes in Louisiana; 60 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 15, 2006, 1:59 AM CST for 22 parishes in Louisiana; 60 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 15, 2006, 1:59 AM CST (07:59 UTC)
Expired: Nov 15, 2006, 10:03 AM CST
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Particularly dangerous situation: Yes
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 82 counties

Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Jefferson Parish, LA, Lafourche Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Plaquemines Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Terrebonne Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Webster County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 90%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 70%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 60%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 95%

Warnings issued inside it

64 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 15, 1:59 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Marion	31 min
Nov 15, 2:06 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Tangipahoa	24 min
Nov 15, 2:14 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Covington, Lamar	46 min
Nov 15, 2:14 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MOB	Wayne	46 min
Nov 15, 2:23 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Tangipahoa, Washington	37 min
Nov 15, 2:35 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Terrebonne	25 min
Nov 15, 2:38 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Covington, Forrest, Jones	67 min
Nov 15, 2:45 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Assumption	30 min
Nov 15, 2:50 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Saint James, Saint John the Baptist	25 min
Nov 15, 2:54 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Washington	36 min
Nov 15, 3:00 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Lafourche, Terrebonne	45 min
Nov 15, 3:02 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Lamar, Marion	58 min
Nov 15, 3:13 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Saint John the Baptist	32 min
Nov 15, 3:18 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Saint James, Saint John the Baptist	27 min
Nov 15, 3:18 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Covington	27 min
Nov 15, 3:26 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Jefferson, Saint Charles	34 min
Nov 15, 3:42 AM CST	Tornado Warning	MOB	Wayne	63 min
Nov 15, 3:43 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Lafourche, Terrebonne	32 min
Nov 15, 3:43 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Jones	17 min
Nov 15, 3:49 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Orleans, Saint Bernard	26 min
Nov 15, 3:55 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Forrest	35 min
Nov 15, 3:57 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Jefferson, Plaquemines	33 min
Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Clarke	45 min
Nov 15, 4:01 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Lafourche, Saint Charles	29 min
Nov 15, 4:10 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Saint James, Saint John the Baptist	35 min
Nov 15, 4:26 AM CST	Tornado Warning	MOB	Perry	32 min
Nov 15, 4:46 AM CST	Tornado Warning	MOB	Greene	45 min
Nov 15, 5:02 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Plaquemines	28 min
Nov 15, 5:31 AM CST	Tornado Warning	MOB	George	59 min
Nov 15, 5:41 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Washington	49 min
Nov 15, 5:46 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Issaquena, Sharkey	44 min
Nov 15, 6:01 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Washington	44 min
Nov 15, 6:09 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Bolivar, Leflore, Sunflower	51 min
Nov 15, 6:21 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LIX	Harrison, Jackson	39 min
Nov 15, 6:23 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Leflore, Sunflower	52 min
Nov 15, 6:31 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LIX	Jackson	29 min
Nov 15, 6:34 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Humphreys, Issaquena, Sharkey, Yazoo	41 min
Nov 15, 6:35 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	LIX	Harrison, Jackson	3 hr
Nov 15, 6:38 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Holmes, Humphreys, Sharkey	37 min
Nov 15, 6:59 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	LIX	Ascension, Livingston, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa	3 hr
Nov 15, 7:01 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Claiborne, Warren	44 min
Nov 15, 7:07 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Holmes	38 min
Nov 15, 7:10 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Adams, Jefferson	50 min
Nov 15, 7:19 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Yazoo	41 min
Nov 15, 7:38 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Carroll, Montgomery	37 min
Nov 15, 7:40 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Hinds	50 min
Nov 15, 7:41 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LIX	Saint Tammany	49 min
Nov 15, 7:45 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Attala	45 min
Nov 15, 7:46 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Madison	59 min
Nov 15, 7:47 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	LIX	Hancock, Pearl River	118 min
Nov 15, 7:50 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Holmes	25 min
Nov 15, 8:04 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Yazoo	26 min
Nov 15, 8:05 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Rankin	55 min
Nov 15, 8:25 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Clay, Webster	50 min
Nov 15, 8:25 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LIX	Hancock, Harrison	35 min
Nov 15, 8:28 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Leake	47 min
Nov 15, 8:53 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Oktibbeha	37 min
Nov 15, 8:56 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Copiah, Simpson	64 min
Nov 15, 8:58 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Attala, Neshoba, Winston	62 min
Nov 15, 9:07 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Scott	38 min
Nov 15, 9:19 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Clay, Lowndes	41 min
Nov 15, 9:25 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	LIX	Hancock, Harrison, Jackson	2 hr
Nov 15, 9:42 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Newton	63 min
Nov 15, 10:01 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Lowndes, Noxubee	44 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 31 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 568 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 327 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 378 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 14, 6:46 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Claiborne, Lincoln, Morehouse, Union, Webster, West Carroll	119 min
Nov 14, 9:20 PM CST	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Catahoula, Claiborne and 16 more	9 hr
Nov 14, 10:07 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Evangeline and 7 more	83 min
Nov 14, 11:25 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 22 more	6 hr
Nov 14, 11:32 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Acadia, Ascension, Avoyelles, Bienville, Bossier, Caddo and 36 more	58 min
Nov 15, 1:30 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Jefferson, Lafourche, Orleans, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles and 2 more	2 hr
Nov 15, 2:16 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Catahoula, Claiborne and 16 more	119 min
Nov 15, 3:25 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 14 more	2 hr
Nov 15, 5:31 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 19 more	4 hr
Nov 15, 5:55 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ascension, Assumption, Jefferson, Lafourche, Livingston, Orleans and 10 more	95 min
Nov 15, 7:14 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Acadia, Ascension, Avoyelles, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and 14 more	2 hr
Nov 15, 9:30 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Orleans, Saint Bernard, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, Washington	60 min
Nov 15, 9:54 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Jefferson, Lafourche, Orleans, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles and 1 more	11 hr
Nov 14, 9:15 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alcorn, Attala, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll and 30 more	2 hr
Nov 15, 2:29 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Coahoma, DeSoto, Lafayette, Lee, Marshall and 6 more	2 hr
Nov 15, 4:30 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alcorn, Benton, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Coahoma, DeSoto and 16 more	5 hr
Nov 15, 12:46 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alcorn, Benton, Lafayette, Marshall, Prentiss, Tippah and 2 more	119 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2006 Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2006 Every tornado watch in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.