Tornado Warning 126, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 151328
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
729 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

MSC051-151345-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0126.000000T0000Z-061115T1345Z/
HOLMES MS-
729 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CST FOR HOLMES
COUNTY...

AT 729 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LEXINGTON...OR ABOUT 16 MILES WEST OF DURANT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3323 9023 3305 9023 3307 8984 3321 8976
      3328 8998

$$

BYB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE NIGHT HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE ARKLAMISS
REGION...AND SHOULD LAST INTO THROUGH THE MORNING TODAY.  THE 992MB
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...AND
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE MS/TN STATE LINE.  THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA. ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY BEGUN FOR THE MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA.  MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THIS EARLY MORNING...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.  THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN TX...IS EXPECTED TO REACH AREAS ALONG
THE MS RIVER AROUND 12Z AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AROUND 18Z.
THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN PUT UNDER A TORNADO WATCH THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LATEST ONE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.

STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. A SQUALL LINE SHOULD FORM ON THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA BEFORE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXITS OUT OF THE CWFA
AROUND LUNCH TIME.  PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.  JUST TO NAME A FEW... ML CAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG.  K INDICES RANGE FROM 30-38C. AND THERE IS A LOT
OF FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A STRONG 200MB JET. 0-1KM HELICITY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 200 M2/S2. SO CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.  THE TORNADO RISK WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNRISE AFTER THE STORMS FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL
TRANSITION THE MAIN RISK TO DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH TORNADOES
STILL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AROUND LUNCHTIME AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES EAST AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. THERE WILL STILL CONTINUE TO
BE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THIS HAPPENS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW.  FOR GUI POPS TODAY...I BUMPED UP A
BIT TO GIVE 100% OVER THE EAST.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...I PRETTY MUCH REMAINED WITH GUIDANCE POPS AS IT LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ALSO LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
REMAINING WITH MAV GUIDANCE.  CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING TOO MUCH OVER THE CWFA TODAY.  THERE WILL BE A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.  CLOUD
COVER LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AFTER PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA...PUTTING US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.  A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW
DURING THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE EARLY WEEK PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
PWATS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.5-0.8 INCHES OR LESS DURING THIS
TIME...AND THERE IS LIMITED INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.  SO SHORT STORY LONG...AM NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH WITH THESE SYSTEMS.  PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH GUIDANCE POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

REMAINED WITH GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR TEMPERATURES AS
WELL.  AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR
LOWS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 60S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.  /14/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH RISING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO
EAST BY 18Z. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY...MAINLY FROM 12Z-06Z.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-40KT POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  43  56  35 /  82  40   4   6
MERIDIAN      70  43  54  34 / 100  34   8   7
VICKSBURG     64  41  56  35 /  63  40   2   5
HATTIESBURG   71  43  56  35 / 100  17   5   5
NATCHEZ       64  41  58  37 /  59  21   1   5
GREENVILLE    62  41  54  36 /  67  67  10   5
GREENWOOD     65  41  48  35 /  71  69  15   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-
     MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-
     MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ040-
     MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047-MSZ048-
     MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-
     MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-
     MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-
     LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

CAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0429 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
161029-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
0429 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
REGION THIS EARLY MORNING....CONTINUING ACROSS EAST MISSISSIPPI
INTO THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS.

THROUGH AROUND 7 AM...THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GREENVILLE...TO JACKSON...TO MERIDIAN LINE.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. WITH AN INCREASE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WIND
SHEAR WILL OVER THE AREA...A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES IS IN PLACE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING EXISTS OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60
TO 70 MPH WILL INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL
LINE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL LINE AS IT RACES EASTWARD.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
AROUND NOON TODAY.

...FLOODING...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. PONDING WATER SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS AND IN
LOW LYING AREAS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. RAINFALL
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVIER WHERE STORMS TRACK ACROSS THE SAME
LOCATIONS SEVERAL TIMES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STANDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY WILL USHER STRONG WEST
WINDS INTO THE REGION. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED. STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MIX
DOWN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA REGION.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS REQUESTED FOR AREAS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER WEDNESDAY...ACTIVATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
555 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 E CROSSETT           33.13N 91.79W
11/15/2006                   ASHLEY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
637 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     TSTM WND DMG     COLUMBIA                31.26N 89.83W
11/15/2006                   MARION             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 43...HIGHWAY 35...AND OLD
            HIGHWAY 35.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
650 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TALLULAH                32.41N 91.19W
11/15/2006                   MADISON            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
651 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TALLULAH                32.41N 91.19W
11/15/2006                   MADISON            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS THE PARISH.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
656 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S INDIANOLA           33.38N 90.64W
11/15/2006                   SUNFLOWER          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LIMBS DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 49.

&&

JFAIRLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
706 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

MSZ026>028-036-037-042>044-048>050-054-055-061>063-151515-
ATTALA-CARROLL-COPIAH-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-LAWRENCE-
LEAKE-LINCOLN-MADISON MS-MONTGOMERY-RANKIN-SCOTT-SIMPSON-YAZOO-
706 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER TO IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...

AT 705 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR GREENWOOD...TO NEAR
VICKSBURG...TO JUST WEST OF NATCHEZ...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND DAMAGE...SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
730 AND 9 AM. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE
HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF ROTATION THIS MORNING...AND TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR THE REGION.

ALL OF THE SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE ENDED FOR THE I-55
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE JACKSON METRO AREA...BY 10 AM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER UPDATES AND WARNINGS.

AEG