Severe Thunderstorm Warning 541, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
935 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WX GRIDS TO INCLUDE
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...AND
TO INCLUDE THE NEWLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
ACTIVE NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE CWFA.

THE AREA IS BEGINNING TO SET UP FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR OUR
REGION. MOISTURE IS INCREASING OVER LOUISIANA AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO 70. THE
SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE TX/OK BORDER...AND SHOULD REACH THE ARKLATEX
AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE EXITING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AROUND LUNCHTIME ON WEDNESDAY.

A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS
CURRENTLY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE
AREA. HEIGHTS WILL FALL AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT
THAT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD WHEN CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER WATCH BOX MAY BE NEEDED. /14/

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHEN CAUGHT UNDER A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
START FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO SEE WINDS OF 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25-30KT BEGINNING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  66  42  56 / 100  84  24   8
MERIDIAN      55  66  42  56 / 100 100  24  11
VICKSBURG     62  64  41  57 / 100  74  24   5
HATTIESBURG   57  68  42  59 / 100 100   2   5
NATCHEZ       62  64  40  58 / 100  68   3   3
GREENVILLE    61  63  41  58 / 100  77  58   7
GREENWOOD     58  64  42  53 / 100  84  58  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-
     MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-
     MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-
     MSZ046-MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-
     MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-
     MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-
     LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1157 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
151200-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1157 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA TONIGHT....CONTINUING ACROSS EAST MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 UNTIL 6 AM. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
SPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AFTER 3 AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION
TONIGHT...SENDING A WARM FRONT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA. DEEP
MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT... CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES AND NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT EXISTS
OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE JACKSON TO
HATTIESBURG AREA AFTER 3 AM.  EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...THE RISK
FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL INCREASE
AS THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE SQUALL LINE AS IT RACES EASTWARD.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

...FLOODING...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. PONDING WATER SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON
ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVIER WHERE STORMS TRACK ACROSS THE
SAME LOCATIONS SEVERAL TIMES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
USHER STRONG WEST WINDS INTO THE REGION. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DELTA REGION.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW...
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS REQUESTED FOR AREAS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER WEDNESDAY...ACTIVATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
150600-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
945 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION
TONIGHT...SENDING A WARM FRONT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA. DEEP MOISTURE
AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AND NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT EXISTS OVER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF WEST MISSISSIPPI...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR GREENVILLE TO VICKSBURG TO NATCHEZ.
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE GREENWOOD TO
JACKSON TO HATTIESBURG AREA AFTER 3 AM. EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...THE
RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL INCREASE
AS THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL
LINE AS IT RACES EASTWARD.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY NOON
ON WEDNESDAY.

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1129 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             3 W HEIDELBERG          31.89N 89.04W
11/14/2006  M1.00 INCH       JASPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY JASPER CIVIL DEFENSE

&&

EEC