Tornado Warning 119, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE NIGHT HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE ARKLAMISS
REGION...AND SHOULD LAST INTO THROUGH THE MORNING TODAY.  THE 992MB
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...AND
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE MS/TN STATE LINE.  THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA. ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY BEGUN FOR THE MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA.  MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
CWFA THIS EARLY MORNING...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.  THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN TX...IS EXPECTED TO REACH AREAS ALONG
THE MS RIVER AROUND 12Z AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AROUND 18Z.
THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN PUT UNDER A TORNADO WATCH THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LATEST ONE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.

STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. A SQUALL LINE SHOULD FORM ON THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA BEFORE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXITS OUT OF THE CWFA
AROUND LUNCH TIME.  PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THIS TIME.  JUST TO NAME A FEW... ML CAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG.  K INDICES RANGE FROM 30-38C. AND THERE IS A LOT
OF FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A STRONG 200MB JET. 0-1KM HELICITY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 200 M2/S2. SO CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.  THE TORNADO RISK WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AFTER SUNRISE AFTER THE STORMS FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH WILL
TRANSITION THE MAIN RISK TO DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH TORNADOES
STILL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AROUND LUNCHTIME AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES EAST AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. THERE WILL STILL CONTINUE TO
BE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THIS HAPPENS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW.  FOR GUI POPS TODAY...I BUMPED UP A
BIT TO GIVE 100% OVER THE EAST.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...I PRETTY MUCH REMAINED WITH GUIDANCE POPS AS IT LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM ALSO LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
REMAINING WITH MAV GUIDANCE.  CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING TOO MUCH OVER THE CWFA TODAY.  THERE WILL BE A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.  CLOUD
COVER LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AFTER PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA...PUTTING US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK.  A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW
DURING THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE EARLY WEEK PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
PWATS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.5-0.8 INCHES OR LESS DURING THIS
TIME...AND THERE IS LIMITED INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AS WELL.  SO SHORT STORY LONG...AM NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH WITH THESE SYSTEMS.  PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH GUIDANCE POPS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

REMAINED WITH GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR TEMPERATURES AS
WELL.  AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR
LOWS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 60S THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.  /14/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE WITH RISING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO
EAST BY 18Z. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY...MAINLY FROM 12Z-06Z.
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-40KT POSSIBLE OVER THE
AREA. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  43  56  35 /  82  40   4   6
MERIDIAN      70  43  54  34 / 100  34   8   7
VICKSBURG     64  41  56  35 /  63  40   2   5
HATTIESBURG   71  43  56  35 / 100  17   5   5
NATCHEZ       64  41  58  37 /  59  21   1   5
GREENVILLE    62  41  54  36 /  67  67  10   5
GREENWOOD     65  41  48  35 /  71  69  15   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-
     MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-
     MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ040-
     MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047-MSZ048-
     MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-
     MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-
     MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-
     LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

CAW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1157 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
151200-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1157 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA TONIGHT....CONTINUING ACROSS EAST MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 UNTIL 6 AM. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
SPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AFTER 3 AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION
TONIGHT...SENDING A WARM FRONT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA. DEEP
MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT... CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES AND NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT EXISTS
OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE JACKSON TO
HATTIESBURG AREA AFTER 3 AM.  EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...THE RISK
FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL INCREASE
AS THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE SQUALL LINE AS IT RACES EASTWARD.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY
NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

...FLOODING...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. PONDING WATER SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON
ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVIER WHERE STORMS TRACK ACROSS THE
SAME LOCATIONS SEVERAL TIMES...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
USHER STRONG WEST WINDS INTO THE REGION. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
FROM 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
DELTA REGION.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOMORROW...
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS REQUESTED FOR AREAS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR ALL AREAS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER WEDNESDAY...ACTIVATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
150600-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
945 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION
TONIGHT...SENDING A WARM FRONT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA. DEEP MOISTURE
AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AND NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT EXISTS OVER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF WEST MISSISSIPPI...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR GREENVILLE TO VICKSBURG TO NATCHEZ.
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE GREENWOOD TO
JACKSON TO HATTIESBURG AREA AFTER 3 AM. EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...THE
RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL INCREASE
AS THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL
LINE AS IT RACES EASTWARD.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY NOON
ON WEDNESDAY.

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1129 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             3 W HEIDELBERG          31.89N 89.04W
11/14/2006  M1.00 INCH       JASPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY JASPER CIVIL DEFENSE

&&

EEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     TORNADO          SUMRALL                 31.42N 89.55W
11/15/2006                   LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            INJURIES AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE ROCKY BRANCH
            COMMUNITY NEAR SUMRALL.

&&

JFAIRLY