Alert archive / Mississippi / Tornado Watches in 2006

Tornado Watch 855

November 15, 20065 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Mississippi; 6 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 15, 2006, 4:30 AM CST for 5 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Mississippi; 6 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 15, 2006, 4:30 AM CST (10:30 UTC)
Expired
Nov 15, 2006, 9:41 AM CST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 33 counties

Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Lee County, AR, Phillips County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Chester County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Shelby County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

2 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 15, 5:14 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCrittenden46 min
Nov 15, 8:32 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGLee, Prentiss28 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 12 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2006-11-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 11 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2006-11-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 124 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
11 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-74 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
519 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
124 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
182 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS20 KWNS 151030
SEL5  
SPC WW 151030
ARZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-151800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 855
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
       NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
       WEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 430 AM UNTIL NOON CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF MEMPHIS
TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OXFORD MISSISSIPPI.  FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 850...WW 851...WW
852...WW 853...WW 854...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG EWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER STORMS IN CNTRL AR EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
NEAR-SURFACE- BASED AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS RECOVERY CONTINUES NWD
THROUGH THE MS DELTA REGION.  VERY STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND BACKED FLOW
INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT SEGMENT WILL POSE
RISK FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND/HAIL. 
OTHER STORMS MAY MOVE INTO NRN MS FROM ERN AR AS AREA OF ASCENT IN
EXIT REGION OF INTENSE SRN PLNS JET MAX OVERSPREADS REGION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 14, 6:46 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 39 more119 min
Nov 14, 9:15 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Cleburne, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Faulkner and 13 more2 hr
Nov 14, 9:20 PM CSTTornado Watch PDSSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 22 more9 hr
Nov 14, 11:01 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Independence, Jackson, Johnson and 16 more7 hr
Nov 14, 11:32 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 47 more58 min
Nov 15, 2:16 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark, Cleveland and 15 more119 min
Nov 15, 2:29 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCleburne, Conway, Crawford, Crittenden, Cross, Faulkner and 25 more2 hr
Nov 15, 5:31 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAshley, Chicot4 hr
Nov 14, 10:07 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWilkinson83 min
Nov 14, 11:25 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Amite, Claiborne, Copiah, Covington, Forrest and 12 more6 hr
Nov 15, 1:30 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAttala, Clarke, George, Greene, Hancock, Harrison and 21 more2 hr
Nov 15, 1:59 AM CSTTornado Watch PDSSPCAdams, Amite, Attala, Bolivar, Carroll, Choctaw and 54 more8 hr
Nov 15, 5:55 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCForrest, George, Greene, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson and 3 more95 min
Nov 15, 7:14 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Alcorn, Amite, Attala, Benton, Calhoun and 54 more2 hr
Nov 15, 9:30 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClarke, Covington, Forrest, George, Greene, Hancock and 24 more60 min
Nov 15, 9:54 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCClarke, Covington, Forrest, George, Greene, Hancock and 12 more11 hr
Nov 15, 12:46 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Lafayette, Marshall, Prentiss, Tippah and 2 more119 min
Nov 15, 11:14 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Coffee, Davidson, DeKalb and 22 more91 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2006Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2006Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2006Every tornado watch in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.