Tornado Warning 85, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
TORNADOES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TORNADO THREAT AND SEVERE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER
JET MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IS STILL EXPECTED TO CARVE OUT A
DEEP TROUGH AND UPPER LOW AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT...LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF BATON
ROUGE TO NEAR HOUMA AT 22Z...IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

STRONG DYNAMICS...RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE...MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MODERATE RISK MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...OR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS. THOSE AT GREATEST RISK...IN TEMPORARY TRAILERS OR
OTHER UNSECURED STRUCTURES...SHOULD HAVE STURDY SHELTER OR
PERMANENT HOME AVAILABLE IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED OR SEVERE
WEATHER SUDDENLY DEVELOPS. NEIGHBORS AND FAMILY MEMBERS SHOULD
CHECK ON THOSE THAT MIGHT NOT HAVE MEANS TO RELOCATE TO A STURDY
SHELTER OR PERMANENT HOME.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS CAUSE FOR SOME CONCERN BECAUSE OF VERY
HIGH RAINFALL RATES...HOWEVER...THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.
COULD STILL SEE SOME WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCAL QPF
OF 4 TO 5 INCHES. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS IN
POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST IN SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
UPGRADED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER FOR PORTIONS OF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WEST OF THE MS
RIVER...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GALE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  67  42  60 /  90  90  10  10
BTR  63  69  43  60 /  90  70  10   0
MSY  65  75  47  61 /  90  90  10  10
GPT  63  73  44  61 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR GMZ530.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ555-GMZ575.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 12 PM CST
     THURSDAY FOR GMZ555-GMZ575.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR GMZ555-GMZ575.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST
     THURSDAY FOR GMZ550-GMZ570.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR GMZ530.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ555-GMZ575.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 12 PM CST
     THURSDAY FOR GMZ555-GMZ575.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR GMZ555-GMZ575.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST
     THURSDAY FOR GMZ550-GMZ570.

&&

22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
644 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-151300-
PASCAGOULA TO SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
PASCAGOULA TO SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER 20-60 NM OUT-
SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM-
SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER 20-60 NM OUT-AMITE-
ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS-
LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-
POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-
ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-WALTHALL-
WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
644 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...NORTH AND WEST OF NEW
ORLEANS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS...AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.

A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE AS A SQUALL LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES EXTREME SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.
LATE TONIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED.

...MARINE...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT AFTER 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS...AND HOUMA. WEST OF THIS AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF SOME LOW LYING AREAS AND
STREETS.

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. OVER
LAND...WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40
MPH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE TIDAL LAKES
AND THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A
GALE WARNING FOR GULF COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME-FRAME...WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS REQUESTED IN THE TORNADO WATCH AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1254 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

LAZ034>036-047-048-MSZ068-150800-
EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-POINTE COUPEE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1254 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE BATON ROUGE AREA AND THE
FELICIANAS...

AT 1248 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR WOODVILLE IN
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH NEW ROADS INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CITY OF BATON ROUGE.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH...AND WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
WOODVILLE...NORWOOD...SPILLMAN...ST. FRANCISVILLE...PORT ALLEN...
AND BATON ROUGE THROUGH 2 AM.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS GUSTING TO 45
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...PEA SIZE HAIL...
AND RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BREAK OFF
SMALL TREE LIMBS AND CAN BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS.  MOVE INDOORS
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. DO NOT STAND BY WINDOWS. UNLESS IT
IS AN EMERGENCY...AVOID USING TELEPHONES AND ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

32