Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE ...CORRECT ISSUE TIME...
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. MAIN INTEREST DURING THIS
TIME INCLUDES PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE PRECIPITATION WILL END
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WEAKER...BUT THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE.

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. GREATEST CONCERN IS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY SINCE MODELS HANDLE
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIFFERENTLY. ETA
IS STRONGER AND A LITTLE MORE EAST WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ETA AND WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY. DID NOT MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT THEN CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER PATTERN IS SHOWN TO EVOLVE FROM A ZONAL FLOW REGIME TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AS A RESULT OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BY NEXT SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...HOW THE MODELS GET THERE
IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT AS GFS ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE A HEALTHY NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE ACROSS AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN KEEPS AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST.  IN CONTRAST
THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY AMPLIFIES UPPER RIDGE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
SLOWLY TAKES UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE SIGN OF A
STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK TIME
PERIOD.  AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION BUT
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH REGION WILL SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DRY FOR THE REST OF WEEK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
AREA.  WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MID
WEEK THEN AT OR BELOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

JCB/AWJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
643 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-131200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-KEARNEY-MERRICK-NANCE-NUCKOLLS-PHELPS-
POLK-SHERMAN-THAYER-VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
643 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS
WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH...AND SOME SMALL HAIL. SEVERE
WEATHER IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH IMPACT CLAY AND FILLMORE COUNTIES HAS ENDED AND
WILL NO LONGER ADD TO FLOODING CONCERNS IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

KSZ005>007-017>019-131200-
JEWELL-MITCHELL-OSBORNE-PHILLIPS-ROOKS-SMITH-
643 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR A PART OF THE AREA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS SMITH...OSBORNE...JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE FOUR COUNTIES. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER JEWELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN ROOKS OR PHILLIPS COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 UNTIL 9 PM.

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
444 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             FRANKLIN                40.10N 98.95W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        FRANKLIN           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
450 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             5 W MCCOOL JUNCTION     40.74N 97.69W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        YORK               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
521 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HARVARD                 40.62N 98.10W
06/12/2004                   CLAY               NE   PUBLIC

            RURAL ROADS SOUTHEAST OF HARVARD REPORTED UNDERWATER.
            RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
549 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SUTTON                  40.61N 97.86W
06/12/2004  3.20 INCH        CLAY               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RAINFALL AMOUNT OCCURRED IN JUST ONE HOUR. WATER REPORTED
            OVER HIGHWAY 6 FOUR MILES NORTH OF SUTTON.

&&

LAWRENCE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
619 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

NEZ049-063-064-075>077-085>087-130000-
ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-HAMILTON-NUCKOLLS-POLK-THAYER-WEBSTER-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HASTINGS...SUPERIOR...YORK
619 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 446 HAS BEEN CANCELED...

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 446 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

POLK     YORK     HAMILTON     ADAMS     CLAY     FILLMORE
WEBSTER  NUCKOLLS THAYER

KSZ006-007-018-019-130000-
JEWELL-MITCHELL-OSBORNE-SMITH-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BELOIT
619 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

...NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR A PART OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 453 IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR SMITH...
JEWELL...OSBORNE...AND MITCHELL COUNTIES. THIS WATCH REPLACES THE
PREVIOUS WATCH ISSUED FOR THE AREA.

ONCE AGAIN...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SMITH...JEWELL...
OSBORNE...AND MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM.

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             LOVEWELL STATE PARK     39.89N 98.03W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        JEWELL             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

LAWRENCE