Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...RETURN OF THE WARM FRONT CAN BE TRACKED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WAS
JUST MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT 08Z. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AT KRSL JUMPED FROM 42 TO 63 IN
THE LAST TWO HOURS. MOISTURE ALSO RETURNING TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ROSE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 50S. AT CURRENT RATE OF PROGRESS...A 70 DEWPOINT IN
THAYER...JEWELL...AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IS LIKELY BY 12Z.

ETA 06Z RUN SHOWS THE WARM FRONT BLASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...STRETCHING FROM KODX TO KLXN BY 00Z SUNDAY. ETA SURFACE
DEWPOINT FIELD IS ABOUT 4 TO 8 F TOO COOL AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
WARM FRONT...EXPECT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO BE HIGHER THAN ETA
VALUES BY 18Z IN THE EASTERN HALF OF AREA. EXPECT CAPE VALUES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000
J/KG BY 21Z. ETA GENERATES QPF BY 15Z IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT
FEEL IT IS STARTING TOO SOON...AS NO REAL TRIGGERS ARE SEEN IN THE
OBSERVATIONS OR MODEL DATA. HELICITY VALUES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA...SPC MODERATE THREAT AREA...ARE UP TO 250 BY 21Z.
BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL FIRE AFTER 21Z...AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND
SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA.

ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. DAY TO DAY CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

NELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
448 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

KSZ005-017-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>062-072>074-082>084-131200-
BUFFALO-DAWSON-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-HALL-HARLAN-HOWARD-
KEARNEY-MERRICK-NANCE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-VALLEY-
448 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM YORK NEBRASKA...TO HASTINGS...TO OSBORNE KANSAS. HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE...AND WINDS OVER 60 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS OF SEVERE
WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING WARM MOIST
AIR.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE RATHER WEAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOG ONTO THE HASTINGS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB-PAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID

KSZ006-007-018-019-NEZ063-064-075>077-085>087-131200-
ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-HAMILTON-JEWELL-MITCHELL-NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-SMITH-
THAYER-WEBSTER-YORK-
448 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY...SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM YORK NEBRASKA...TO HASTINGS...TO OSBORNE KANSAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES...HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND WINDS OVER 60 MPH
ARE THE MAIN THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING BRINGING WARM MOIST AIR.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOG ONTO THE HASTINGS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB-PAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID

NELSON