Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
353 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...RETURN OF THE WARM FRONT CAN BE TRACKED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WAS
JUST MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT 08Z. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AT KRSL JUMPED FROM 42 TO 63 IN
THE LAST TWO HOURS. MOISTURE ALSO RETURNING TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ROSE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 50S. AT CURRENT RATE OF PROGRESS...A 70 DEWPOINT IN
THAYER...JEWELL...AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IS LIKELY BY 12Z.

ETA 06Z RUN SHOWS THE WARM FRONT BLASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...STRETCHING FROM KODX TO KLXN BY 00Z SUNDAY. ETA SURFACE
DEWPOINT FIELD IS ABOUT 4 TO 8 F TOO COOL AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
WARM FRONT...EXPECT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO BE HIGHER THAN ETA
VALUES BY 18Z IN THE EASTERN HALF OF AREA. EXPECT CAPE VALUES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 4000
J/KG BY 21Z. ETA GENERATES QPF BY 15Z IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT
FEEL IT IS STARTING TOO SOON...AS NO REAL TRIGGERS ARE SEEN IN THE
OBSERVATIONS OR MODEL DATA. HELICITY VALUES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA...SPC MODERATE THREAT AREA...ARE UP TO 250 BY 21Z.
BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL FIRE AFTER 21Z...AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND
SHORT WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA.

ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. DAY TO DAY CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

NELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

KSZ005-017-NEZ039>041-046>048-060>062-072>074-082>084-131200-
BUFFALO-DAWSON-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-HALL-HARLAN-HOWARD-
KEARNEY-MERRICK-NANCE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-ROOKS-SHERMAN-VALLEY-
1158 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

CORRECTED MISSING WORD

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM FULLERTON NEBRASKA...TO HASTINGS...TO OSBORNE KANSAS. WARM
MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A WARM FRONT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH
SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR...THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOG ONTO THE HASTINGS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB-PAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID

KSZ006-007-018-019-NEZ049-063-064-075>077-085>087-131200-
ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-HAMILTON-JEWELL-MITCHELL-NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-POLK-
SMITH-THAYER-WEBSTER-YORK-
1158 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

CORRECTED MISSING WORD

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT AND DRY
LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM FULLERTON NEBRASKA...TO HASTINGS...TO
OSBORNE KANSAS. WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WINDS OVER 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOG ONTO THE HASTINGS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB-PAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID

LAWRENCE/JCB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
119 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HAIL             5 NW ONG                40.45N 97.91W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        CLAY               NE   PUBLIC

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
159 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 AM     HAIL             10 NW OSCEOLA           41.28N 97.68W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        POLK               NE   PUBLIC

&&

LAWRENCE