Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE ...CORRECT ISSUE TIME...
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. MAIN INTEREST DURING THIS
TIME INCLUDES PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE PRECIPITATION WILL END
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WEAKER...BUT THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE.

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. GREATEST CONCERN IS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY SINCE MODELS HANDLE
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIFFERENTLY. ETA
IS STRONGER AND A LITTLE MORE EAST WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ETA AND WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY. DID NOT MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT THEN CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER PATTERN IS SHOWN TO EVOLVE FROM A ZONAL FLOW REGIME TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AS A RESULT OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BY NEXT SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...HOW THE MODELS GET THERE
IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT AS GFS ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE A HEALTHY NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE ACROSS AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN KEEPS AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST.  IN CONTRAST
THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY AMPLIFIES UPPER RIDGE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
SLOWLY TAKES UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE SIGN OF A
STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK TIME
PERIOD.  AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION BUT
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH REGION WILL SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DRY FOR THE REST OF WEEK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
AREA.  WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MID
WEEK THEN AT OR BELOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

JCB/AWJ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
119 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HAIL             5 NW ONG                40.45N 97.91W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        CLAY               NE   PUBLIC

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
159 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 AM     HAIL             10 NW OSCEOLA           41.28N 97.68W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        POLK               NE   PUBLIC

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
243 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             MILLIGAN                40.50N 97.39W
06/12/2004  0.88 INCH        FILLMORE           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
252 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     HAIL             MILLIGAN                40.50N 97.39W
06/12/2004  1.75 INCH        FILLMORE           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LAWRENCE

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