Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE ...CORRECT ISSUE TIME...
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. MAIN INTEREST DURING THIS
TIME INCLUDES PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THE PRECIPITATION WILL END
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY. ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS WEAKER...BUT THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE.

MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. GREATEST CONCERN IS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY SINCE MODELS HANDLE
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIFFERENTLY. ETA
IS STRONGER AND A LITTLE MORE EAST WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ETA AND WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY. DID NOT MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT THEN CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER PATTERN IS SHOWN TO EVOLVE FROM A ZONAL FLOW REGIME TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AS A RESULT OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BY NEXT SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...HOW THE MODELS GET THERE
IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT AS GFS ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE A HEALTHY NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE ACROSS AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN KEEPS AREA UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST.  IN CONTRAST
THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY AMPLIFIES UPPER RIDGE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
SLOWLY TAKES UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE SIGN OF A
STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK TIME
PERIOD.  AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION BUT
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH REGION WILL SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN DRY FOR THE REST OF WEEK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
AREA.  WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MID
WEEK THEN AT OR BELOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

JCB/AWJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

KSZ005-017-NEZ039>041-046>048-060>062-072>074-082>084-131200-
BUFFALO-DAWSON-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-HALL-HARLAN-HOWARD-
KEARNEY-MERRICK-NANCE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-ROOKS-SHERMAN-VALLEY-
1158 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

CORRECTED MISSING WORD

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM FULLERTON NEBRASKA...TO HASTINGS...TO OSBORNE KANSAS. WARM
MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A WARM FRONT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE FRONT TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH
SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR...THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOG ONTO THE HASTINGS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB-PAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID

KSZ006-007-018-019-NEZ049-063-064-075>077-085>087-131200-
ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-HAMILTON-JEWELL-MITCHELL-NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-POLK-
SMITH-THAYER-WEBSTER-YORK-
1158 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

CORRECTED MISSING WORD

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT AND DRY
LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM FULLERTON NEBRASKA...TO HASTINGS...TO
OSBORNE KANSAS. WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WINDS OVER 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FURTHER MONITORED FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION...LOG ONTO THE HASTINGS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB-PAGE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GID

LAWRENCE/JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
304 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             4 S SHICKLEY            40.36N 97.72W
06/12/2004  0.88 INCH        FILLMORE           NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

0301 PM     HAIL             SHICKLEY                40.42N 97.72W
06/12/2004  1.75 INCH        FILLMORE           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     HAIL             BLOOMINGTON             40.09N 99.04W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        FRANKLIN           NE   PUBLIC

&&

NOAA/NWS/MORITZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             CLAY CENTER             40.52N 98.05W
06/12/2004  1.75 INCH        CLAY               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
404 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             HASTINGS                40.59N 98.39W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        ADAMS              NE   PUBLIC

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
436 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             6 ESE CLAY CENTER       40.49N 97.95W
06/12/2004  2.00 INCH        CLAY               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAIL RANGED IN SIZE FROM 3/4 INCH TO 2 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER.

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
444 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             FRANKLIN                40.10N 98.95W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        FRANKLIN           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LAWRENCE