Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 968

May 14, 20034 counties in Arkansas; 29 counties in Oklahoma; 14 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2003, 5:50 AM CDT for 4 counties in Arkansas; 29 counties in Oklahoma; 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 14, 2003, 5:50 AM CDT (10:50 UTC)
Expired
May 14, 2003, 7:45 AM CDT
In force
115 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 47 counties

Howard County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Atoka County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McClain County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Washita County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Delta County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Morris County, TX, Red River County, TX, Titus County, TX

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 85 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2003-05-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3007 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2003-05-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 192 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3007 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
995 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
192 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
283 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
4.6
Supercell composite
17.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

791 
ACUS11 KWNS 141051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141050 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-141245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 367...

VALID 141050Z - 141245Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES...PRIMARILY FOR LARGE HAIL.	PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL WW.

MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS FOCUS FOR MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA
CITY.  PRIMARY CLUSTER OF STORMS CENTERED NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF ARDMORE
HAS GENERATED A WEAK SURFACE COLD POOL...BUT THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT NOW APPEARS RELATIVELY MINIMAL.	POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...NORTH THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA LIKELY WILL BE INHIBITED BY
STRONG CAP THROUGH MID MORNING.  HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST
LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH THE MID DAY HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

LEAD CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SHREVEPORT...WHILE ACTIVITY NORTHWEST OF
OKLAHOMA CITY DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VICINITY OF
WICHITA FALLS BY AROUND 15Z.  


..KERR.. 05/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

36169830 35969787 34719603 34029363 32889398 32809521
33239668 34329866 36009946

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 13, 8:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Miller, Nevada55 min
May 14, 10:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDesha, Phillips94 min
May 14, 10:55 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 3 more2 hr
May 14, 11:10 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCPhillips6 hr
May 14, 2:30 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 10 more6 hr
May 14, 5:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more118 min
May 14, 6:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshley, Columbia, Lafayette, Nevada, Union6 hr
May 13, 9:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Custer and 20 more3 hr
May 13, 10:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlfalfa, Atoka, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian and 39 more7 hr
May 14, 1:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Coal and 32 more116 min
May 14, 3:49 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 38 more116 min
May 14, 4:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 23 more5 hr
May 14, 7:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Bryan, Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Custer and 11 more95 min
May 14, 3:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCotton, Jefferson, Love, Tillman2 hr
May 14, 4:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Garfield, Grant, Kay, Noble, Payne and 1 more113 min
May 14, 6:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGreer, Harmon, Jackson2 hr
May 13, 8:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCGregg, Harrison, Marion, Nacogdoches, Panola, Rusk and 2 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.