Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 970
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2003, 10:26 AM CDT for Desha County, Phillips County, Arkansas; 34 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 94 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2003, 10:26 AM CDT (15:26 UTC)
- Expired
- May 14, 2003, 12:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 94 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 36 counties
Desha County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Madison County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 869 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -116 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 474 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 66 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.9
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
853 ACUS11 KWNS 141526 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141526 ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-141700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141526Z - 141700Z THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS E CENTRAL AR ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD NEAR / JUST NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT. DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT A LIMITED HAIL THREAT EXISTS ATTM...WITH AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MS. LATEST RADAR / SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS / BROAD COLD POOL ACROSS AR AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN OK...WITH STRONGEST CLUSTER OF CONVECTION JUST SW OF MEM IN E CENTRAL AR APPROACHING THE MS RIVER. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING SSEWD FROM THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL MS TO NEAR GPT...WITH MARGINAL /500 TO 1000 J/KG/ MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE ABOVE STABLE / CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK ATTM... MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS OK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT WITH TIME AS IT MOVES SEWD NEAR / JUST N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN MS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...BUT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE -- PARTICULARLY IF COLD POOL ORGANIZES INVOF THIS CONVECTION. SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING / DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO FURTHER ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 05/14/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34869049 34628951 33348838 32458833 32328954 32989112 34149145
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 8:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Columbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Miller, Nevada | 55 min |
| May 14, 5:50 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Howard, Little River, Miller, Sevier | 115 min |
| May 14, 10:55 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 3 more | 2 hr |
| May 14, 11:10 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Phillips | 6 hr |
| May 14, 2:30 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 10 more | 6 hr |
| May 14, 5:17 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Columbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more | 118 min |
| May 14, 6:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashley, Columbia, Lafayette, Nevada, Union | 6 hr |
| May 14, 2:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Attala, Carroll, Chickasaw, Choctaw, Clay, Holmes and 18 more | 62 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.