Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 982

May 14, 20037 counties in Arkansas; 6 parishes in Louisiana; Bowie County, Cass County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2003, 5:17 PM CDT for 7 counties in Arkansas; 6 parishes in Louisiana; Bowie County, Cass County, Texas. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 14, 2003, 5:17 PM CDT (22:17 UTC)
Expired: May 14, 2003, 7:15 PM CDT
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Columbia County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Union County, AR, Bossier Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Bowie County, TX, Cass County, TX

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 373May 14, 6:10 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 480 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -383 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 842 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 116 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

890 
ACUS11 KWNS 142217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142217 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR/FAR NE TX/NRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 371...

VALID 142217Z - 150015Z

CONVECTION MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN AR WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT ORIENTED ALONG THE RED RIVER AND EWD
ACROSS NRN LA. THE STORMS WERE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED N OF THE FRONT. SFC
DEWPOINTS FROM 70 TO 75 F WERE ADVECTING NWD AHEAD OF THE STORMS
WITH SBCAPE AOB 4000 J/KG. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THIS HIGHLY
UNSTABLE AIR...IT WILL LIKELY BE SUSTAINED OR INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT WILL CONTINUE PRODUCE A
SUPERCELL THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION. IF A SUPERCELL CAN
DEVELOP...ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR INDICATES ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE
LINEAR. WITH NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO SURFACE WARM
FRONT...THREAT FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINEAR MCS MAY BE
INCREASING INTO NRN LA AND CENTRAL MS.

..BROYLES.. 05/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33259468 33709449 34009400 33419244 32969194 32239229
32329290 32569348 32759400 32999441

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 13, 8:05 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Columbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Miller, Nevada	55 min
May 14, 5:50 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Howard, Little River, Miller, Sevier	115 min
May 14, 10:26 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Desha, Phillips	94 min
May 14, 10:55 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 3 more	2 hr
May 14, 11:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Phillips	6 hr
May 14, 2:30 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 10 more	6 hr
May 14, 6:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Ashley, Columbia, Lafayette, Nevada, Union	6 hr
May 13, 8:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Catahoula, Claiborne and 15 more	5 hr
May 13, 10:45 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto and 11 more	5 hr
May 14, 3:49 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Fannin, Lamar, Red River	116 min
May 14, 4:05 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Collin, Cooke, Delta, Denton, Fannin, Grayson and 3 more	5 hr
May 14, 7:40 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Clay, Collin, Cooke, Delta, Denton and 7 more	95 min
May 14, 3:23 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Clay and 24 more	2 hr
May 14, 6:28 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Baylor, Briscoe, Carson, Childress, Collingsworth and 25 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.