Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 979

May 14, 20034 counties in Oklahoma; 30 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 14, 2003, 3:23 PM CDT for 4 counties in Oklahoma; 30 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 14, 2003, 3:23 PM CDT (20:23 UTC)
Expired
May 14, 2003, 5:30 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 34 counties

Cotton County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Love County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Clay County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-05-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 564 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-05-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 397 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
564 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-562 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
628 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
397 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
387 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

146 
ACUS11 KWNS 142024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142023 
TXZ000-OKZ000-142230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...N TX / SRN OK...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 142023Z - 142230Z

A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS N TX AND
ADJACENT SRN OK AHEAD OF DRYLINE / INVOF W-E FRONT.  IF CAP WEAKENS
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WW WILL BE
REQUIRED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR ABI...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM E OF ABI SWD TO NEAR JCT...AND THEN SWWD TO W OF DRT.  WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EWD -- N OF MWL / DFW TO NEAR GGG ATTM. 
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST EAST OF DRYLINE...AND WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED AIRMASS
TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE INDICATED.  HOWEVER...MORNING FWD RAOB SHOWED VERY STRONG CAP
IN PLACE.

WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEST OF SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH AXIS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL OK ACCORDING TO LATEST WV
IMAGERY...SYNOPTIC-SCALE UVV APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING INTO NERN TX. 
GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CU DEVELOPMENT NEAR DRYLINE / LOW THUS
FAR...IT APPEARS THAT CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAIN SEVERE
THREAT EXISTS E OF THIS REGION -- ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 371.

HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLVING UVV FIELD / CAP
STRENGTH...AS ANY BREACH OF THE CAP ACROSS N TX WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO
RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN KINEMATIC / THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. 

..GOSS.. 05/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

34339968 34439908 34099727 32869631 31809735 31649946
32669945 33399933

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 13, 9:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Custer and 20 more3 hr
May 13, 10:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlfalfa, Atoka, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian and 39 more7 hr
May 14, 1:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Coal and 32 more116 min
May 14, 3:49 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 38 more116 min
May 14, 4:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 23 more5 hr
May 14, 5:50 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 23 more115 min
May 14, 7:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Bryan, Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Custer and 11 more95 min
May 14, 10:55 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBryan, Choctaw, Johnston, McCurtain, Marshall2 hr
May 14, 2:30 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCChoctaw, McCurtain, Pushmataha6 hr
May 14, 4:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Garfield, Grant, Kay, Noble, Payne and 1 more113 min
May 14, 6:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGreer, Harmon, Jackson2 hr
May 13, 8:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCGregg, Harrison, Marion, Nacogdoches, Panola, Rusk and 2 more5 hr
May 14, 5:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.