Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARRIVING INTO NORTHEAST ND HAVE HAD
SOME SEVERE EVENTS ALREADY. ETA SHOWS THE RELATED THETA-E RIDGE...
SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONG VORTICITY LOBE WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
MAY ARRIVE IN TIME TO KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE FOR SOUTHEAST
ND AND WESTCENTRAL MN SO NO TORNADO WATCH EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS
FAR/FFM. BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO HAVE SOME SEVERE STORMS INTO
EARLY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LOOKS STRONG ON WED WITH SURFACE LOW
OVER WESTERN SD AND NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH OF FAR. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR FAR AND GFS SHOWS STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LIFTED INDEXES REACH -6C BY 18Z BUT FALL OFF LATER WHILE
GFS REACHES -5C NEAR DVL LATE. FIGURE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IS
SOUTH PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL JET COUPLET AND WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS THERE (WHERE WE ALREADY SHOW CHANCE PROBABILITY).

12Z GFS RETURNED TO ITS 00Z SOLUTION REGARDING A DEVELOPING MCS ON
ND/CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT WITH ALMOST IDENTICAL QPF...POSITION
AND TIMING. ETA DOESN/T DEVELOP IT OR ASSOCIATED UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
NEARLY AS MUCH THOUGH WOULD TRUST GFS ON THIS ISSUE MORE.

EXTENDED...FRI-SUN DRY AS HOT RIDGE OVER LOWER CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S.
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BUILT ENOUGH TO SHOVE UPPER JET WELL INTO
CANADA. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH THE 12Z GFS SHOWS AT 120 HOURS (SAT
12Z) READY TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER AREA LOOKS OMINOUS. THINK THE
TROUGH WILL DIG A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD AT THAT TIME.

.FGF...TORNADO WATCH #744 UNTIL 8PM CDT FOR NORTHEAST ND AND
NORTHWEST MN.

GV

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-141430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
631 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY AND INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY EXITING EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

VOELKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
233 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0220 PM    6 E ROCKLAKE              ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/14/03   TOWNER

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
335 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0321 PM    PEMBINA                   ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/14/03   PEMBINA

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
352 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 PM    PEMBINA                   ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/03   PEMBINA