Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 14, 2003Lake of the Woods County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 14, 2003, 3:04 PM CDT for Lake of the Woods County, Minnesota. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2003, 3:04 PM CDT (20:04 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2003, 3:45 PM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Lake of the Woods County, MN

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 14, 2:35 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 93 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -353 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1491 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 116 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 142004
SVRFGF
MNC077-142045-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
304 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTH CENTRAL LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

* AT 300 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLAG ISLAND...OR ABOUT 46
  MILES NORTHEAST OF ROSEAU...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  FLAG ISLAND ISLAND AT 305 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4935 9504 4917 9507 4906 9410 4930 9405

$$
8

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 14, 9:35 AM CDT, 5 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 9:35 AM CDT, 5 hours 29 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

SURFACE TROUGH STILL SITTING IN CENTRAL ND/SD AS MESOETA REDEVELOPS
THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE JUST WEST OF REDEVLOPING CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF ND. BIS 12Z SOUNDING IS STILL JUICY UP TO 750
MB WHERE THE WIND SHEARS TO WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE THE UPPER JET
CORE APPROACHING FROM WEST/NORTHWEST AND ITS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
PUT NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN UNDER THE GUN THROUGH MID-DAY FOR
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDER THOUGH WOULDN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE ANYWHERE IF SUFFICIENT HEATING IS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.

ZONES/GRIDS LOOK WELL HANDLED ATTM AND WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND
MIGHT NOT UPDATE ZONES EXCEPT TO MAKE WORDING MORE CURRENT...WILL
NOT REMOVE MENTION OF SEVERE. FLOOD POTENTIAL IS APPARENTLY NOT
ESPECIALLY HIGH AFTER A WHOLE NIGHT OF CONVECTION...BUT COULDN/T
DEAL WITH ANOTHER ROUND. ISOLATED HEAVY CELLS MAY BE A PROBLEM.

WILL NEED TO LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THUNDER POTENTIAL ON WED/THU ALSO
IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SPC SHOWS MOST OF AREA IN SLIGHT RISK THOUGH
OUR POPS CONFINE THUNDER TO SOUTHERN PORTION. GFS HAS TRIED TO
DEVELOP AN MCS ON THU TO TRACK ALONG CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...
LASTEST RUN WEAKENS IT AND TURNS IT SOUTHEAST UPON ARRIVAL. MOISTURE
SOURCE APPEARS TO DEPEND LARGELY ON DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN CO/WY
TO GIVE IT A BOOST NORTHWARD.

.FGF...NONE.

GV

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 14, 6:31 AM CDT, 8 hours 33 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-141430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
631 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY AND INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY EXITING EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

VOELKER

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 14, 2:33 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
233 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0220 PM    6 E ROCKLAKE              ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/14/03   TOWNER

JH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 10:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Norman	57 min
Jul 14, 2:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Kittson	66 min
Jul 14, 4:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson	45 min
Jul 14, 4:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods, Roseau	40 min
Jul 14, 4:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall	49 min
Jul 14, 4:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	42 min
Jul 14, 5:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Polk	44 min
Jul 14, 5:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Polk	47 min
Jul 14, 6:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Red Lake	45 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.