Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
935 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

SURFACE TROUGH STILL SITTING IN CENTRAL ND/SD AS MESOETA REDEVELOPS
THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE JUST WEST OF REDEVLOPING CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF ND. BIS 12Z SOUNDING IS STILL JUICY UP TO 750
MB WHERE THE WIND SHEARS TO WESTERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE THE UPPER JET
CORE APPROACHING FROM WEST/NORTHWEST AND ITS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
PUT NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN UNDER THE GUN THROUGH MID-DAY FOR
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDER THOUGH WOULDN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED
SEVERE ANYWHERE IF SUFFICIENT HEATING IS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.

ZONES/GRIDS LOOK WELL HANDLED ATTM AND WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND
MIGHT NOT UPDATE ZONES EXCEPT TO MAKE WORDING MORE CURRENT...WILL
NOT REMOVE MENTION OF SEVERE. FLOOD POTENTIAL IS APPARENTLY NOT
ESPECIALLY HIGH AFTER A WHOLE NIGHT OF CONVECTION...BUT COULDN/T
DEAL WITH ANOTHER ROUND. ISOLATED HEAVY CELLS MAY BE A PROBLEM.

WILL NEED TO LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT THUNDER POTENTIAL ON WED/THU ALSO
IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SPC SHOWS MOST OF AREA IN SLIGHT RISK THOUGH
OUR POPS CONFINE THUNDER TO SOUTHERN PORTION. GFS HAS TRIED TO
DEVELOP AN MCS ON THU TO TRACK ALONG CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...
LASTEST RUN WEAKENS IT AND TURNS IT SOUTHEAST UPON ARRIVAL. MOISTURE
SOURCE APPEARS TO DEPEND LARGELY ON DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN CO/WY
TO GIVE IT A BOOST NORTHWARD.

.FGF...NONE.

GV

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-141430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
631 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY AND INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY EXITING EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

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