Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 14, 2003Ramsey County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 14, 2003, 4:16 PM CDT for Ramsey County, North Dakota. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2003, 4:16 PM CDT (21:16 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2003, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Ramsey County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 215 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1637 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -252 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 351 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

175 
WUUS53 KFGF 142116
SVRFGF
NDC071-142200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
415 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  RAMSEY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT.

* AT 410 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEBSTER...OR ABOUT 9 MILES
  NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  DEVILS LAKE AT 425 PM AND
  CRARY AT 435 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4834 9888 4820 9905 4799 9863 4815 9845

$$

DK/RD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 14, 3:30 PM CDT, 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 3:30 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARRIVING INTO NORTHEAST ND HAVE HAD
SOME SEVERE EVENTS ALREADY. ETA SHOWS THE RELATED THETA-E RIDGE...
SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONG VORTICITY LOBE WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DRY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
MAY ARRIVE IN TIME TO KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE FOR SOUTHEAST
ND AND WESTCENTRAL MN SO NO TORNADO WATCH EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS
FAR/FFM. BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO HAVE SOME SEVERE STORMS INTO
EARLY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LOOKS STRONG ON WED WITH SURFACE LOW
OVER WESTERN SD AND NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET SOUTH OF FAR. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR FAR AND GFS SHOWS STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE. LIFTED INDEXES REACH -6C BY 18Z BUT FALL OFF LATER WHILE
GFS REACHES -5C NEAR DVL LATE. FIGURE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER IS
SOUTH PORTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL JET COUPLET AND WILL
PLACE HIGHEST POPS THERE (WHERE WE ALREADY SHOW CHANCE PROBABILITY).

12Z GFS RETURNED TO ITS 00Z SOLUTION REGARDING A DEVELOPING MCS ON
ND/CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT WITH ALMOST IDENTICAL QPF...POSITION
AND TIMING. ETA DOESN/T DEVELOP IT OR ASSOCIATED UPPER JET DIVERGENCE
NEARLY AS MUCH THOUGH WOULD TRUST GFS ON THIS ISSUE MORE.

EXTENDED...FRI-SUN DRY AS HOT RIDGE OVER LOWER CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S.
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BUILT ENOUGH TO SHOVE UPPER JET WELL INTO
CANADA. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH THE 12Z GFS SHOWS AT 120 HOURS (SAT
12Z) READY TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER AREA LOOKS OMINOUS. THINK THE
TROUGH WILL DIG A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD AT THAT TIME.

.FGF...TORNADO WATCH #744 UNTIL 8PM CDT FOR NORTHEAST ND AND
NORTHWEST MN.

GV

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 14, 6:31 AM CDT, 9 hours 45 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-141430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
631 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY AND INTO EARLY
EVENING.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY EXITING EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

VOELKER

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 14, 2:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
233 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0220 PM    6 E ROCKLAKE              ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/14/03   TOWNER

JH

Local storm report, Jul 14, 3:35 PM CDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
335 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0321 PM    PEMBINA                   ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/14/03   PEMBINA

BB

Local storm report, Jul 14, 3:52 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
352 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 PM    PEMBINA                   ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/03   PEMBINA

Local storm report, Jul 14, 4:14 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
414 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 PM    LANCASTER                 MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/14/03   KITTSON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 7:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Eddy	49 min
Jul 13, 8:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Eddy	43 min
Jul 13, 8:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Griggs, Nelson	44 min
Jul 13, 9:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Steele	63 min
Jul 13, 9:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	36 min
Jul 13, 9:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Traill	53 min
Jul 14, 5:35 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Walsh	55 min
Jul 14, 5:51 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson	39 min
Jul 14, 5:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Steele, Traill	62 min
Jul 14, 2:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Towner	46 min
Jul 14, 2:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Pembina	66 min
Jul 14, 4:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Pembina	45 min
Jul 14, 4:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Cavalier	34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.