Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
820 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

...ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER...

NEAR TERM/ANALYSIS...A SEVERE/TORNADIC CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN CENTRAL
ND IS MOVING STEADILY EWD AT AROUND 45KTS...WITH ADDN SEVERE LINE
EXTENDING NEWD INTO SWRN BENSON CNTY. EXPECT SVR TSTMS INTO THE
GRAND FORKS AREA BY 10 PM...WITH LIKELY DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ALG
THE LINE...AND INTO THE FARGO-MOORHEAD AREA BY 11PM. A SFC COLD
FRONT IS SWEEPING SEWD THROUGH WCNTL ND AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE NRN RRV SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES ACROSS
EASTERN ND ARE APPROACHING 3500-400J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE 21Z RUC SHOWS THESE HIGH
INSTABILITIES SHIFTING INTO WRN MN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. COORD WITH SPC INDICATES THAT SEVERE TSTM WATCH
WILL LIKLEY BE ISSUED INTO THE RRV AND NORTHWEST-WEST CENTRAL MN
FROM 10PM INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY...EXPECT A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ERN MT TONIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS ND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUS ADDN TSTMS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MONDAY FORENOON HOURS. MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW AND
IF SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS INTO SCNTRL ND AROUND 12Z AS NOSE OF
500-300MB JET NOSES INTO WRN ND. UPR DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN PROGGED
CONSISTENTLY HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD ADD IN DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION INTO THE FGF CWFA FOR EARLY
MONDAY. THREAT FOR TRAINING ECHOES AND/OR REPEATED TSTMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FGF CWFA.

.FGF...SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR EASTERN ND TIL 10PM. EXTENSION EXPECTED
INTO NORTHWEST MN AFTER 10PM.

GUST

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-131430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE REGION AFTER 7 PM.  THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR WINNIPEG
TO MINOT TO DICKINSON LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

RIDDLE