Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
235 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS EARLY/LATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD. WILL
UTILIZE ETA FOR DETAILS.

INITIAL BAND OF PCPN WITH SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST WITH LONE STRONG
TSRA DIVING SE INTO SD. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET OVER WESTERN ND WEAKENING HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR AM MENTION AS WELL DEVELOPING TSRA OVER NW MN.

FOR REMAINDER OF DAY...BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN DAKOTAS TO
SHIFT EAST REACHING RED RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACTENT AREAS 15-18Z. ETA
MODEL SOUNDING INDICATING AIRMASS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WITH APPROACHING WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF
UPPER JET ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY TO INTENSIFY. AT THIS TIME WITH
STRONG SHEAR AND ABOVE WILL HIGHLIGHT VALLEY REGION EAST FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS OVER FA AROUND 18Z. CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION MAY MAKE FOR TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
ANY BREAKS ALONG WITH WARM START SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUICK RECOVERY.
FOR NOW WILL MAKE MINIMAL TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDDS.

SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING LOOKS EARLY AS BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST OF FA
SHORTLY AFT 00Z. PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES DROP BLO AN INCH AS COLUMN
DRIES WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE OVER FA AS RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST INTO FA. COOLEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TUESDAY
WITH GRADUALLY RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE BUILDS.

SURFACE BOUNDARY ORGANIZES NW-SE ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
UPPER SUPPORT ATTM LOOKS LIMITED WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OVER SOUTHERN FA JUST NORTH OF CAP. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
POPS TO SOUTH.

STRONGER WAVE TO BUCKLE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HANDLED IN EXTENDED SO NO CHANGES PLANNED.

.FGF...NONE.

VOELKER

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-131430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE REGION AND THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE REGION AFTER 7 PM.  THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR WINNIPEG
TO MINOT TO DICKINSON LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

RIDDLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1250 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

...UPDATED STORM REPORT FOR JULY 13TH...

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0846 PM    8 S HAMAR                 ND   60 MPH WIND GUST
07/13/03   EDDY                           LARGE BRANCHES BROKE AND
                                          SMALLER TREES BENT
                                          SEVERELY. REPORTED BY
                                          TRAINED SPOTTER.

0906 PM    7 SW MCVILLE              ND   65 MPH WIND GUST
07/13/03   NELSON

0906 PM    8 NNE BINFORD             ND   65 MPH WIND GUST
07/13/03   GRIGGS

0930 PM    ANETA                     ND   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/13/03   NELSON                         REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

0945 PM    4 E GOLDEN LAKE           ND   70 MPH WIND GUST
07/13/03   STEELE                         LARGE TREE SNAPPED OFF
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0955 PM    EMERADO                   ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/13/03   GRAND FORKS

1005 PM    5 E MAYVILLE              ND   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/13/03   TRAILL                         REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS
                                          EMPLOYEE

RD