Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

FCST CONCERNS...
SVR WX/FLOOD POTNL FOR THE CWA THRU TNGT...

WILL RELY ON SATELLITE AND SFC DATA FOR THIS EVENINGS FCST...THEN
ON ETA/AVN BEYOND.

TRIPLE POINT NOW LURKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH STRONG
MIXING/HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF ICT DUE
TO WHAT MAY BE FORCING FROM AN ELEVATED DRYLINE. WATER VAPOR DOES
HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITHIN LARGER SCALE UPPER
TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE SFC/THERMAL
LOW SW OF ICT THIS EVENING.

SITUATION DICTATES HIGH POPS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 THIS
EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAPE SHOULD BE GREATER TONIGHT THAN
YESTERDAY...WHILE EHI VALUES IN EXCESS OF 5 INDICATE THE TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY FROM ICT SOUTH AND EAST. WILL ALSO CARRY THE
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT GIVEN SATURATED CONDS FROM ICT EAST.

THU...WILL FINALLY GET SOME QUIET WX INTO THE CWA WITH GOING FCST
HANDLING THE WORDING WELL.

FRI-SUN...NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE WX BY
INDUCING LOWER PRESSURES AND AIDING IN THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
BY FRIDAY. WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY HOWEVER WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND
LOWER MAX TEMPS TO AGREE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. PRECIP CHCS BACK
INTO THE FCST FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE TWEAKED
MAX TEMPS DOWN AND INCREASE PRECIP CHCS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

NEXT WEEK...FINALLY LOOKS AS IF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR
RIDGING THROUGH WEDS WITH DRY CONDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FCSTID =11
ICT   47  65  43  69 /  50   5   0  10
HUT   45  64  41  69 /  20   5   0  10
EWK   46  64  42  68 /  50   5   0  10
EQA   47  65  42  68 /  60   5   0  10
WLD   48  66  42  71 /  60   5   0  10
RSL   40  60  40  68 /  20   5   0  10
GBD   42  62  40  69 /  20   5   0  10
SLN   44  63  42  67 /  20   5   0  10
MPR   46  64  42  68 /  40   5   0  10
CFV   51  67  42  70 /  70   5   0  10
CNU   48  66  41  68 /  70   5   0  10
K88   48  65  41  67 /  70   5   0  10

.ICT...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR ZONES
KSZ069>072...KSZ092>096...KSZ098>100.

KSZ048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1223 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

...ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT...INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT INTERSECTION.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AS WINDS CONVERGE NEAR THESE
BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS RAPIDLY INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THIS EVENING...WHERE A SQUALL LINE MAY EVOLVE.

WIND SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY...WILL AGAIN
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY. IF WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE CAN BACK
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT...
THEN THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE...
INCLUDING THE WICHITA METRO AREA.

DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. THE GROUND IS SATURATED
IN MANY AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE...SO FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THERE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

CARUSO