Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

FCST FOCUS ON CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALONG WITH
TEMPS.

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS ELONGATED SFC LOW ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE.
GREATEST 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NEB...AND
THIS IS AIDING IN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
WHICH IS NOW FROM NEAR RSL TO SLN WHERE CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION
IS OCCURRING. THE DRYLINE REMAINS STATIONARY FROM JUST EAST OF DDC
THROUGH WESTERN OK. AN INTERESTING PROCESS OF WAA/THETAE ADVECTION
WITHIN THE 800-700MB LAYER CONTINUES TO RELEASE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL OK/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  MEANWHILE...A
DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF PARSONS TO NEAR
WINFIELD. WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER SPEED
MAX ACROSS WEST TX  WITH A STRONGER UPPER VORT CENTER ACROSS AZ.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN THETAE
AXIS TO PERSIST DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SFC BASED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY BETWEEN DDC AND PRATT NEAR THE
DRYLINE AFTER 4 PM. ANOTHER AREA OF EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT IS NEAR THE
WARM FRONT FROM RSL TO SALINA. GREATEST RISK OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE SUNSHINE WILL AID
IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL CAPE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL...THE WAVE ACROSS AZ COMBINED WITH DECENT UPPER
JET DIV AND AMOUNT OF CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTION. AT THE MOMENT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES
SINCE ONLY A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS
RECENTLY...BUT WILL MONITOR.

WEDS...STRONG UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. WILL DEEPEN
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. DRY ADVECTION MAY INHIBIT LATE
DAY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS...HOWEVER SE KS
SHOULD REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS SO WILL KEEP HIGHER PRECIP
CHCS HERE. WILL KEEP GOING TEMPS.  BEST CHCS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTRMS
APPEAR TO BE WEDS NIGHT EAST OF THE TURNPIKE SO HIGHEST POPS HERE.

QUIET AND COOLER WX STILL LOOKS ON TAP THU/FRI...WITH ADDITIONAL
RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. OVERALL ONLY CHANGE TO THE GOING FCST
WILL BE TO LOWER MIN TEMPS MON/TUES.

FCSTID =11
ICT   67  87  48  66 /  60  20  30   0
HUT   67  87  48  66 /  60  20  30   0
EWK   67  87  48  66 /  60  20  30   0
EQA   67  87  48  66 /  60  20  30   0
WLD   67  87  48  66 /  60  20  30   0
RSL   63  81  43  62 /  60  10  20   0
GBD   63  81  43  62 /  60  10  20   0
SLN   65  84  46  63 /  60  10  20   0
MPR   65  84  46  63 /  60  10  20   0
CFV   68  86  50  67 /  60  30  50   0
CNU   68  86  50  67 /  60  30  50   0
K88   68  86  50  67 /  60  30  50   0

.ICT...NONE.