Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
415 PM CDT WED OCT 25 2000

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS DAWSON...SCURRY AND MITCHELL
COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PECOS...CRANE
AND SRN UPTON COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CELL-TRAINING AND
PREVIOUS RAINS WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL/ERN
PERMIAN BASIN. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PROGGED WITH LI/S
APPROACHING MINUS 6 AND CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL/ERN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS AT MAF FOR 26/00Z
INDICATE DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THOUGH THE SPEED SHEAR NOT QUITE AS
PRONOUNCED VERSUS LAST EVENING WHEN POTENT SUPERCELLS RAKED ECTOR/
MIDLAND COUNTIES. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WILL INCLUDE MENTION SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MAF VICINITY EWD. WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL OPT FOR NIL POPS TONIGHT W OF PECOS RIVER THOUGH WILL
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE BREWSTER COUNTY. ETA/NGM INDICATE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TO ENCROACH UPON WRN SECTIONS THUR THOUGH AVN NOT
INDICATING THIS FEATURE. ALL PROGS STILL POINT TOWARD MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS THUR AFTN WITH N-S INSTABILITY AXIS OVER CENTRAL
PERMIAN BASIN. BELIEVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WARRANTED MOST SECTIONS
THUR/THUR NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FRI AS MID
LEVEL FORCING PER H7-H5 NEG DIV Q FIELDS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WRN
ZONES. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS
SAT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES N OF AREA. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE OCT.
BF

MAF  60/74/57/74    4222
LSA  57/72/55/72    6322
6R6  62/75/60/75    4223
MRF  53/73/52/73    -223
CNM  55/78/54/77    0223

.MAF...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT TXZ046>048-051>053-061>063-068>070.
NM...NONE.

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-260200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
316 PM CDT WED OCT 25 2000

.SYNOPSIS...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
TODAY.  A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL FLOW OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST...AS A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS.  MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITIES WILL REMAIN...WHICH WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.THREATS...

THUNDERSTORMS...
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER.  THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING...
PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT HAS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS.  RAINFALL REPORTS AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES WAS REPORTED OVER
DAWSON COUNTY SINCE MIDNIGHT.  OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN HAVE REPORTED ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SINCE
MONDAY.  THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS SATURATED THE GROUND...AND
RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  HEAVY RAINFALL WAS ALSO CAUSING URBAN...SMALL
STREAM...AND ARROYO FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PERMIAN
BASIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS...
POSSIBLE WATCHES...OR WARNINGS CONCERNING THESE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER THREATS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RSB