Tornado Warning 58, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
WILL THE SVR CONVECTION BE SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS?
WILL STORMS BE SUPERCELLS OR NOT?
WILL THERE BE HEAVY RAINFALL?

SEVERE CONVECTION GOING FROM NW OKLAHOMA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE AND SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CATCH DRYLINE AND CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MONDAY MORNING.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE...INSTABLILITY AND LIFT SHOULD
BE AVAILABLE WITH ONLY QUESTION HOW QUICKLY
PRECIP WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
ETA SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR E WITH UPPER SYSTEM WITH
H5 PATTERN TOO CIRCULAR IN SHAPE. AVN/NGM/MM5 IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER MOVMENT OF FRONT EASTWARD AND
PREFER THOSE SOLUTIONS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY
POPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WITH SEVERE MENTIONED TONIGHT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. WILL TAPER POPS SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT.
EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTION AND RAISE
POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY RAINS
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT SYSTEM
APPEARS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOOD THREAT.

MODELS OF CHOICE PUSH COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH
MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR
PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE IN NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE AREA.
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
BUT QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR IT WILL GET
BEFORE SLOWING/STALLING. AVN STILL HAS BIG CHUNK OF
ENERGY TO COME INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVN HANGS SURFACE FRONT AND PRECIP MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN
48 HOUR ETA/NGM WOULD INDICATE. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE
LIKELY POPS IN FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES. CLOUDS ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
EXIT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FAIR WEATHER
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON EXACT
TRACK OF DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM AND
CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS/PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN
NORTHWEST ZONES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY BUT KEEP
CLOUDS IN EASTERN ZONES TO LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE.

FCSTID = 13
TUL   67  73  53  70 /  70  70  30  30
FSM   69  80  62  70 /  40  70  60  40
MLC   70  77  58  72 /  50  70  40  30
BVO   65  70  50  68 /  70  50  20  20
FYV   67  77  58  70 /  40  70  50  40
IDB   71  80  65  72 /  30  50  60  50
BYV   67  77  58  70 /  40  70  50  40
MIO   67  73  53  70 /  70  70  30  30
MKO   70  77  58  72 /  50  70  40  30
F10   67  73  53  70 /  70  70  30  30
HHW   71  80  65  72 /  30  50  60  50

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

EXPECTED MESOSCALE FEATURE: STRONG COLD FRONT
GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CONVECTIVE PRECIP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: GOOD CHANCE SVR
NGM CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  5 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
MOST USEFUL TOOL: MODEL GRIDS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
110 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY MORNING.  FURTHER
SOUTH A DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE STALLING AND BEING OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM HAVE BROUGHT VERY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
AREA.  THE CONVERGENCE OF THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND THE COMPLEX WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.  THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A
SUPERCELL OR TWO.  THUS...THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCIES AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS CONCERNING TORNADOES...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH WIND EVENTS...FLOODING AND WINTER WEATHER.
INFORMATION CONCERNING OTHER HAZARDS CAN BE FOUND IN OTHER PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE TULSA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
110 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY MORNING.  FURTHER
SOUTH A DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE STALLING AND BEING OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX
WEATHER SYSTEM HAVE BROUGHT VERY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
AREA.  THE CONVERGENCE OF THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND THE COMPLEX WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT.  THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A
SUPERCELL OR TWO.  THUS...THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCIES AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS CONCERNING TORNADOES...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH WIND EVENTS...FLOODING AND WINTER WEATHER.
INFORMATION CONCERNING OTHER HAZARDS CAN BE FOUND IN OTHER PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE TULSA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.