Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1010 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST AND IS STILL MAKING PROGRESS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER BIG PIECE OF ENERGY STILL TO ROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROF AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS EXTENDED FROM NEAR MIAMI TO
OKEMAH BUT 850 MB TROF IS STILL NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH MAIN AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS SOUTHEAST OF CURRENT POSITION
OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. DUE TO CURRENT RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS IN EFFECT WON'T CANCEL  ANY OF THE FFA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THREAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO PLAN ON SHAVING
OFF NORTHWEST PART OF WATCH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO LOWER MAXES BEHIND COLD FRONT WHERE CLOUDS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE STEADY OR FALL WITH PRECIP OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT NEAR RED RIVER WHERE SUNSHINE
COULD LET TEMPS WARM INTO MID 80S. THREAT FOR SEVERE SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO THAT AREA...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LEADING
EDGE OF STORMS FOR POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION. UPDATED ZONES
SHOULD BE OUT BY 11AM.

.TUL...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OKZ049...OKZ053>077.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR ZONES $ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...
ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.  THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THAT OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE
YESTERDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE.

EARLY THIS MORNING A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHED FROM EASTERN KANSAS DOWN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ONGOING...MAINLY OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...VERY HEAVY
RAINS THAT HAVE FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING HAVE LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL POSE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY EXPECTED TO SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY...THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCIES AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS CONCERNING TORNADOES...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH WIND EVENTS...FLOODING AND WINTER WEATHER.
INFORMATION CONCERNING OTHER HAZARDS CAN BE FOUND IN OTHER PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE TULSA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.  THIS SYSTEM WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THAT OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SINCE
YESTERDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE.

EARLY THIS MORNING A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHED FROM EASTERN KANSAS DOWN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ONGOING...MAINLY OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...VERY HEAVY
RAINS THAT HAVE FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING HAVE LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL POSE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY EXPECTED TO SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY...THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCIES AND SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS CONCERNING TORNADOES...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH WIND EVENTS...FLOODING AND WINTER WEATHER.
INFORMATION CONCERNING OTHER HAZARDS CAN BE FOUND IN OTHER PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE TULSA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.