Severe Thunderstorm Warning 461, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 PM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:
POPS
WILL THERE BE HEAVY RAINFALL?
WILL THERE BE ANY FLOODING?

BAND OF SEVERE STORMS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES IS
MOVING EAST BUT ADDITONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURING
OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSA OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE FFA IN THOSE AREAS. NOT SURE ABOUT
EXTENT OF POSSIBLE PRECIP NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER SYSTEM STILL BRINGING
ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. APPEARS
MAIN PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTHEAST OF H85 TROF
SO WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

COLD UPPER TROF TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SO EVEN WITH SEEMINGLY DRY
LOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH ANY HEATING. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING IN WESTERN ZONES AND
CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
STAYED CLOSE TO FWC TMPS...BUT HAVE NOT HAD
MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT MODELS WITH MAJOR
COMMS PROBLEMS IN THE OFFICE TODAY.
EXTENDED LEFT WITH DRY/MILD WEATHER INTO
THE WEEKEND. /13

FCSTID = 13
TUL   53  65  50  68 /  30  20  20  10
FSM   60  68  57  70 /  90  50  30  30
MLC   57  67  54  70 /  70  30  10  20
BVO   50  65  47  68 /  20  20  10  10
FYV   58  65  52  67 /  90  40  20  20
IDB   63  70  57  73 /  90  50  20  20
BYV   58  66  55  68 /  90  40  30  30
MIO   53  65  50  68 /  30  20  20  10
MKO   57  67  54  70 /  70  30  10  20
F10   53  65  50  68 /  30  20  20  10
HHW   63  70  57  73 /  90  50  20  20

.TUL...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES OKZ049...OKZ053...
OKZ069...OKZ072>077.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES ARZ001>002...
ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

--------------------
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:

GENERAL WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: CONVECTIVE PRECIP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: SLIGHT CHANCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS
NGM CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
ETA CONFIDENCE:  5 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
AVN CONFIDENCE:  6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10
FCST CONFIDENCE: 6 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
420 PM CDT MON OCT 05 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0743 PM    PAWNEE                    OK   WIND DAMAGE
10/04/98   PAWNEE                         EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IN
                                          PAWNEE REPORTED BY OHP

0804 PM    CLEVELAND                 OK   60 MPH TSTM GUST
10/04/98   PAWNEE

0839 PM    HALLETT                   OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/04/98   PAWNEE

0839 PM    HALLETT                   OK   60 MPH TSTM GUST
10/04/98   PAWNEE

0840 PM    3 S JENNINGS              OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/04/98   CREEK

0844 PM    HOMINY                    OK   80 MPH TSTM GUST
10/04/98   OSAGE

0846 PM    4 W WESTPORT              OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/04/98   PAWNEE

0847 PM    8 E CLEVELAND             OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
10/04/98   OSAGE

0901 PM    2 W TERLTON               OK   TORNADO
10/04/98   PAWNEE                         BETWEEN JENNINGS AND
                                          TERLTON

0904 PM    HOMINY                    OK   FLOODING
10/04/98   OSAGE                          ROADS UNDER WATER IN
                                          HOMINY

0923 PM    2 N CLEVELAND             OK   1 INCH HAIL
10/04/98   OSAGE

STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
445 PM CDT MON OCT 05 1998

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0944 PM    2 W OCHELATA              OK   WIND DAMAGE
10/04/98   OSAGE                          MOBILE HOME DESTROYED

1007 PM    OCHELATA                  OK   WIND DAMAGE
10/04/98   WASHINGTON                     TRAILER HOUSE DESTROYED.
                                          2 INJURIES.

1017 PM    1 SE VERA                 OK   TORNADO
10/04/98   WASHINGTON                     7 MILES NW OF INTERSECTION
                                          OF HWYS 169 AND 20 FROM
                                          1017 AND 1022 PM.

1028 PM    2 NE COLLINSVILLE         OK   TORNADO
10/04/98   TULSA

OKZ060-052220-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT MON OCT 5 1998

THIS IS A COMMUNICATIONS TEST.