Tornado Warning 65, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 1998

SLOW MVG CF APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF A SAT TO AUS TO TYR LN.
EXPECT FNT TO MOVE INTO CLL AREA ARND NOON.  UPR ANALYSIS AT 500MB
THIS MRNG SHOWS WEAK S/E ENERGY RIDING UP FM S TX WHILE 200MB SHOWS
GOOD DIFFLUENCE WITH REMNANTS OF RIGHT JET ENTRANCE OVER EAST CNTRL
TX AND MAIN JET AXIS ALNG A OK-MO-IL LINE AS IT PULLS OFF TO NE.
850MB FNT STILL WELL BACK OVR TX PNHDL WITH 20-35KT SRLY INFLOW
STILL CONCENTRATED FROM BRO TO NE TX.  EXPECT UPR DYNAMICS TO CONT
INTERACTING WITH WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ACRS AREA TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS MUCH OF FA TDY.  RADAR SHOWS
MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS NOW ACRS THE FIRST TWO TEERS OF COUNTIES
NEAR THE COAST AND SLWLY SAGGING SWRD.  IF THIS TREND CONTS...
HOPEFULLY THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL PUSH OF THE COAST DURING THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE SLOW MVMNT OF FNT AND EXPECTED STALLING OF
FNT ACRS FA LATER THIS AFTN...WILL CONT WITH 100% CHC RAINS AND FFA
THRU TDY.  WILL TWEAK COASTAL COUNTIES TO CLDY SKIES AND 100% CHC
RAIN AND LOWER ALL HIGH TMPS A CAT OR TWO.  SHUD CONT TO MENTION
PSBL SVR IN ACRS CNTRL AND COASTAL ZONES AS STILL GETTING ISOLATED
SPIN UPS WITH TRAINING CELLS AND THIS TREND SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
12Z CPR HODO.  FLOOD PROBLEMS CONT MOST AREAS.  39

PRELIMS...
CLL  C/C C/C  73/64 76/61 +776  HVY RAINS
IAH  C/C C/C  75/67 78/64 +776  HVY RAINS/POSSIBLY SVR
GLS  C/C C/C  80/76 80/72 +776  HVY RAINS/POSSIBLY SVR

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181515-

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
522 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFEFCT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  HEAVY OVERNIGHT
RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
FURTHER SOUTH TODAY AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 4 TO
6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE ADJUSTED UPWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

SINCE LATE SATURDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE BEEN NORTH AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM EDNA TO HOUSTON TO CROCKETT.  WORST HIT WERE LOCATIONS
OVER COLORADO... NORTHERN WHARTON AND NORTHERN JACKSON THAT HAD SOME
7 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THIS HELPED TO FLOOD
SOME HOMES AND NUMEROUS ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THESE FLOOD PROBLEMS...THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.  FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL INFLOW AND SOME HEATING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE.  TORNADOES WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.  THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY.  VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY.  MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

IF YOU OBSERVE FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RELIABLE NEWS
SOURCES FOR THE LATEST UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181515-

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
522 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFEFCT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  HEAVY OVERNIGHT
RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
FURTHER SOUTH TODAY AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 4 TO
6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE ADJUSTED UPWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

SINCE LATE SATURDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE BEEN NORTH AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM EDNA TO HOUSTON TO CROCKETT.  WORST HIT WERE LOCATIONS
OVER COLORADO... NORTHERN WHARTON AND NORTHERN JACKSON THAT HAD SOME
7 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THIS HELPED TO FLOOD
SOME HOMES AND NUMEROUS ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THESE FLOOD PROBLEMS...THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.  FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL INFLOW AND SOME HEATING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE.  TORNADOES WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.  THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY.  VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY.  MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

IF YOU OBSERVE FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RELIABLE NEWS
SOURCES FOR THE LATEST UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.