Flash Flood Warning 81, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
810 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 1998

THIS DISCUSSION IS SHORT DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER. THE UPSTREAM 00Z CRP
SOUNDING IS VERY MOIST...DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES NEAR AUSTIN-SAN
ANTONIO...AND 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN FROM MADISONVILLE TO
COLLEGE STATION TO BRENHAM TO SOUTHERN COLORADO COUNTY. THE 12Z ETA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED OMEGA FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. THUS THE SHORT ANSWER HERE
IS TO GO ON THE SAFE SIDE AND EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AND INCREASE POPS TO 100 PERCENT
FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT.

31/ZEITLER

C`LL  C/C C/C  070/078 064/076 +766
IAH  C/C C/C  074/083 065/078 +876 ADD FFA
SW   E/C C/C  075/083 073/079 +776 ADD FFA
GLS  E/C C/C  077/084 074/080 +676 ADD FFA

TXZ163-164-177>179-199-200-213-214-226-227-235>238-181000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
620 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 1998

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR THAT
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 59 AND
INTERSTATE 45.  THE CITIES OF HOUSTON AND GALVESTON ARE INCLUDED IN
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK.

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT THAT PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY FOR THAT PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND WEST OF A
COLUMBUS TO NAVASOTA TO MADISONVILLE LINE WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINS CURRENTLY EXIST.

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH THIS APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR FURTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  VERY HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL PERSIST WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS CREATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1/2
AND 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.  ON
SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OR GREATER.  HEAVY RAINS COULD STILL BE A THREAT FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAVY RAIN SITUATION CAREFULLY.  EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP AND FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RELIABLE WEATHER NEWS
SOURCES FOR FURTHER UPDATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS...ON THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.