Tornado Warning 63, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 1998

LOOKS LIKE THE SOGGY FORECAST IS HERE TO STAY.  THE HEAVY/PERSISTENT
RAINS OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE PRODUCED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
FLOODING LAST EVENING (AND INTO THIS MORNING).  ADDITIONALLY...THERE
WERE ALSO SOME REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS/TORNADOES EARLIER TODAY (AND
EVEN TONIGHT).  MEANWHILE...THE LARGE AREA OF MAINLY SHRA CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY MOVE (MORE ELY THAN SE) ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER...ALL OF
THIS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE MORE SE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER N TX EDGES A BIT FURTHER SSE.  WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE PROG-
GED ALONG WITH A DECENT SURGE OF PW (AOA 2") COMBINED WITH PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT AND AVAILABLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THIS FCST PD.  WOULD ALSO LIKE TO ADD THE MENTION OF
"SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE" IN SOME OF THE ZONES BASED MAINLY ON WHAT HAS
ALREADY TRANSPIRED ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEATING OVER S
PARTS OF THE CWA/PROGGED VERTICAL SHEAR/INFLOW.  LOOKING AHEAD...THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY PULL UP STATIONARY OVER AT LEAST THE N HALF OF THE
AREA AS UPPER SUPPORT FADES, AND UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
CA BAJA.  TIMING OF S/Ws FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE TRICKY PART OF THE
FCST, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND OPT FOR HIGH POPS/ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS
THE BOARD, GIVEN ALL THE OTHER INGREDIENTS IN PLACE.  WILL ALSO KEEP
FFA UP FOR NOW.  WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS TEMPS AS CLOUDS STAY IN.
41

PRELIMS...
CLL  C/C C/C  78/64 76/61 +776  HVY RAINS
IAH  C/C C/C  81/67 78/64 +776  HVY RAINS/POSSIBLY SVR
GLS  E/C C/C  84/76 80/72 8776  HVY RAINS/POSSIBLY SVR

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181515-

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
522 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFEFCT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  HEAVY OVERNIGHT
RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
FURTHER SOUTH TODAY AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 4 TO
6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE ADJUSTED UPWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

SINCE LATE SATURDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE BEEN NORTH AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM EDNA TO HOUSTON TO CROCKETT.  WORST HIT WERE LOCATIONS
OVER COLORADO... NORTHERN WHARTON AND NORTHERN JACKSON THAT HAD SOME
7 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THIS HELPED TO FLOOD
SOME HOMES AND NUMEROUS ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THESE FLOOD PROBLEMS...THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.  FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL INFLOW AND SOME HEATING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE.  TORNADOES WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.  THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY.  VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY.  MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

IF YOU OBSERVE FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RELIABLE NEWS
SOURCES FOR THE LATEST UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181515-

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
522 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 1998

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFEFCT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TODAY.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  HEAVY OVERNIGHT
RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
FURTHER SOUTH TODAY AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE FROM 4 TO
6 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME TOTALS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE ADJUSTED UPWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

SINCE LATE SATURDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE BEEN NORTH AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM EDNA TO HOUSTON TO CROCKETT.  WORST HIT WERE LOCATIONS
OVER COLORADO... NORTHERN WHARTON AND NORTHERN JACKSON THAT HAD SOME
7 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THIS HELPED TO FLOOD
SOME HOMES AND NUMEROUS ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THESE FLOOD PROBLEMS...THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.  FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL INFLOW AND SOME HEATING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE.  TORNADOES WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY.  THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY.  VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY.  MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

IF YOU OBSERVE FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RELIABLE NEWS
SOURCES FOR THE LATEST UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.