Tornado Warning 56, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 1998

LOOKS LIKE THE SOGGY FORECAST IS HERE TO STAY.  THE HEAVY/PERSISTENT
RAINS OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE PRODUCED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
FLOODING LAST EVENING (AND INTO THIS MORNING).  ADDITIONALLY...THERE
WERE ALSO SOME REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS/TORNADOES EARLIER TODAY (AND
EVEN TONIGHT).  MEANWHILE...THE LARGE AREA OF MAINLY SHRA CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY MOVE (MORE ELY THAN SE) ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER...ALL OF
THIS SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE MORE SE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER N TX EDGES A BIT FURTHER SSE.  WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE PROG-
GED ALONG WITH A DECENT SURGE OF PW (AOA 2") COMBINED WITH PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT AND AVAILABLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THIS FCST PD.  WOULD ALSO LIKE TO ADD THE MENTION OF
"SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE" IN SOME OF THE ZONES BASED MAINLY ON WHAT HAS
ALREADY TRANSPIRED ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEATING OVER S
PARTS OF THE CWA/PROGGED VERTICAL SHEAR/INFLOW.  LOOKING AHEAD...THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY PULL UP STATIONARY OVER AT LEAST THE N HALF OF THE
AREA AS UPPER SUPPORT FADES, AND UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
CA BAJA.  TIMING OF S/Ws FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE TRICKY PART OF THE
FCST, BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND OPT FOR HIGH POPS/ABUNDANT CLOUDS ACROSS
THE BOARD, GIVEN ALL THE OTHER INGREDIENTS IN PLACE.  WILL ALSO KEEP
FFA UP FOR NOW.  WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS TEMPS AS CLOUDS STAY IN.
41

PRELIMS...
CLL  C/C C/C  78/64 76/61 +776  HVY RAINS
IAH  C/C C/C  81/67 78/64 +776  HVY RAINS/POSSIBLY SVR
GLS  E/C C/C  84/76 80/72 8776  HVY RAINS/POSSIBLY SVR