Tornado Warning 54, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 1998

A VERY COMPLEX AND TRICKY FCST THIS RUN.  MDLS RMN IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH DRIVING UPR LOW OVR CNTRL PLAINS TOWARD GREAT LAKES REGION BY
MRNG AND SLWLY DRAGGING CF INTO NRN ZONES ERLY SUN AFTN.  FNT LOOSES
ITS PUSH AS MID-UPR LVL FLOW GOES MAINLY ZONAL WITH FNT AND NEW UPR
LOW DVLPS OVR BAJA.  FNT MAY SAG SLGTLY SWRD SUN NGT BUT SHUD RMN
FOCUS FOR TSTMS ALNG AND OUT AHEAD OF FNT WELL INTO MON.  STILL
UNCERTAIN ABOUT TIMING OF FROPA OFF UPR COAST BUT AVN AND ETA DO
SUGGEST SOMETIME LATE MON AFTN.  GOOD OVERRUNNING EVENT SETS UP
QUICKLY BEHIND FROPA ALL AREAS WITH MOIST SRLY FLOW AT 85OMB AND
PACIFIC MOIST SW FLOW AT 700MB.  SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES IN THE UPR
LVL JET WILL ENHANCE OVERRUNNING LIFT AND RESULT IN EMBEDDED TSTMS
AND THREAT OF LCLY HVY RAINS ACRS MUCH OF FA SUN NGT-MON.  AT THIS
TIME...WILL PLAN ON FROPA WITH CLDS...OVERRUNNING RAINS AND COOLER
TMPS MOST AREAS BY MON AFTN.  THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST TILL
BAJA LOW KICKS OUT SOMETIME MID WEEK.

HAVE ALLIGNED TOR WATCH AREA WITH SAME COUNTIES IN FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR TNGT.  ADD MENTION OF PSBL SVR HERE TNGT.  WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF PSBL SVR ACRS REST OF FA FOR SUN AS MAIN UPR DYNAMICS
APPEARS TO PULL OFF TO NE.

CLL  C/C C/C  70/78 64/76 8766  (TOR WATCH HERE TILL 8 PM TNGT)
(FLASH FLOOD WATCH TNGT-SUNDAY...BRAZOS, MADISON, GRIMES, BURLESON,
 WASHINGTON, AUSTIN, COLORADO, WALLER)

IAH  C/C C/C  74/83 65/78 7876  (LCLY HVY RAIN PSBL TNGT & SUNDAY)

SW   E/C C/C  75/83 73/79 6776  (LCLY HVY RAIN PSBL SUNDAY)
                                (JACKSON,WHARTON2,MATAGORDA)

GLS  E/C C/C  77/84 74/80 5676  (BRAZORIA, GALVESTON, CHAMBERS)

39/42

TXZ176-195>198-210>212-180125-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
228 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 1998

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 800 PM CDT.  THE COUNTIES
INCLUDED IN THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDE BRAZOS...BURLESON...
GRIMES...MADISON...WASHINGTON...WALLER...AUSTIN...AND COLORADO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE COUNTIES IN THE TORNADO WATCH AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOME OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

AGAIN...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEAT HER NEWS SOURCES
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

TXZ176-195>198-210>212-180125-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
228 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 1998

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 800 PM CDT.  THE COUNTIES
INCLUDED IN THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDE BRAZOS...BURLESON...
GRIMES...MADISON...WASHINGTON...WALLER...AUSTIN...AND COLORADO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND APPROACH THE COUNTIES IN THE TORNADO WATCH AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOME OF THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

AGAIN...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEAT HER NEWS SOURCES
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

TXZ163-164-177>179-199-200-213-214-226-227-235>238-181000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
620 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 1998

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR THAT
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 59 AND
INTERSTATE 45.  THE CITIES OF HOUSTON AND GALVESTON ARE INCLUDED IN
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK.

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT THAT PRODUCED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY FOR THAT PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG AND WEST OF A
COLUMBUS TO NAVASOTA TO MADISONVILLE LINE WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINS CURRENTLY EXIST.

DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH THIS APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

ON SUNDAY...THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN EDGE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR FURTHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  VERY HIGH MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL PERSIST WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS CREATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 1/2
AND 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.  ON
SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGHER ON SUNDAY...POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OR GREATER.  HEAVY RAINS COULD STILL BE A THREAT FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAVY RAIN SITUATION CAREFULLY.  EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP AND FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RELIABLE WEATHER NEWS
SOURCES FOR FURTHER UPDATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS...ON THIS HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.