Flash Flood Warning 102, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 1998

SLOW MVG CF APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF A SAT TO AUS TO TYR LN.
EXPECT FNT TO MOVE INTO CLL AREA ARND NOON.  UPR ANALYSIS AT 500MB
THIS MRNG SHOWS WEAK S/E ENERGY RIDING UP FM S TX WHILE 200MB SHOWS
GOOD DIFFLUENCE WITH REMNANTS OF RIGHT JET ENTRANCE OVER EAST CNTRL
TX AND MAIN JET AXIS ALNG A OK-MO-IL LINE AS IT PULLS OFF TO NE.
850MB FNT STILL WELL BACK OVR TX PNHDL WITH 20-35KT SRLY INFLOW
STILL CONCENTRATED FROM BRO TO NE TX.  EXPECT UPR DYNAMICS TO CONT
INTERACTING WITH WARM/MOIST AIRMASS ACRS AREA TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS MUCH OF FA TDY.  RADAR SHOWS
MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINS NOW ACRS THE FIRST TWO TEERS OF COUNTIES
NEAR THE COAST AND SLWLY SAGGING SWRD.  IF THIS TREND CONTS...
HOPEFULLY THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL PUSH OF THE COAST DURING THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE SLOW MVMNT OF FNT AND EXPECTED STALLING OF
FNT ACRS FA LATER THIS AFTN...WILL CONT WITH 100% CHC RAINS AND FFA
THRU TDY.  WILL TWEAK COASTAL COUNTIES TO CLDY SKIES AND 100% CHC
RAIN AND LOWER ALL HIGH TMPS A CAT OR TWO.  SHUD CONT TO MENTION
PSBL SVR IN ACRS CNTRL AND COASTAL ZONES AS STILL GETTING ISOLATED
SPIN UPS WITH TRAINING CELLS AND THIS TREND SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
12Z CPR HODO.  FLOOD PROBLEMS CONT MOST AREAS.  39

PRELIMS...
CLL  C/C C/C  73/64 76/61 +776  HVY RAINS
IAH  C/C C/C  75/67 78/64 +776  HVY RAINS/POSSIBLY SVR
GLS  C/C C/C  80/76 80/72 +776  HVY RAINS/POSSIBLY SVR