Tornadoes · United States · Texas · 2015

EF3 tornado, Primrose to Van, Texas, May 10, 2015

Name: EF3 tornado, Primrose to Van, Texas, May 10, 2015
Start: 2015-05-11T01:46:00.000Z
End: 2015-05-11T02:09:00.000Z
Location: Primrose to Van, Texas

From Primrose to Van, this EF3 tornado ran 10.2 miles across Van Zandt County on May 10, 2015, touching down at 8:46 PM CDT and reaching 700 yards wide. It killed 2 people and injured 43, and did $40 million of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

EF065 to 85 mph
Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.
EF186 to 110 mph
Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.
EF2111 to 135 mph
Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.
EF3136 to 165 mphthis tornado
Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.
EF4166 to 200 mph
Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.
EF5over 200 mph
Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.
Unrated
The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating: EF3
Date: May 10, 2015
Touchdown: 8:46 PM CDT (01:46 UTC)
Lifted: 9:09 PM CDT (02:09 UTC)
On the ground: 23 minutes
Path length: 10.2 miles (16.4 km)
Path width: 700 yards (640 m)
Deaths: 2
Injuries: 43
Property damage: $40 million
County: Van Zandt County
Touchdown point: 32.410, -95.619
Lift-off point: 32.557, -95.633
Record number: 1505101946-01

The damage survey

112 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS FWD and NWS SHV, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF3. The highest wind the damage implies is 145 mph.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

An active Spring weather pattern led to numerous severe thunderstorms, many of which produced tornadoes, across north Texas during Mother's Day Weekend. The prolonged period of strong to severe storms was made possible by a slow-moving upper level low pressure system which moved east from the Rockies through the Southern Plains. Activity began on Friday and continued through Mother's Day evening.

A NWS storm survey team found EF-3 damage in the city of Van. This tornado began near highway 64, near Edom before moving in a northerly direction. The storm crossed Interstate 20 on the southeast side of Van, before carving a destructive path over the eastern side of the city. The greatest damage was done in a housing development to the north of the public school administration building, where over 50 homes were damaged or destroyed. Two fatalities occurred with this tornado, as a married couple was apparently asleep in their mobile home when the tornado hit.

The deaths

2 direct deaths are recorded for this tornado, each with what Storm Data knows of it.

Age	Sex	Where	Kind
62	F	Mobile/Trailer Home	Direct
60	M	Mobile/Trailer Home	Direct

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at May 10, 7:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 10, 7:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

YET ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY AND CHALLENGES WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE
TIMING INTO ALL TERMINALS...AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW FINALLY
SHOWS SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD
FRONT WAS SEEN MOVING INTO THE KABI/KSPS AREAS ATTM. LINEAR
FORCING WILL HOLD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MOST HIGH RES
MODELS PROGRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF I-35 BY
MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NAM WHICH HOLDS
SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED ACTIVITY BACK W/SW OF WACO OVERNIGHT. WE
WILL TIME CONVECTION THROUGH ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE BY
MIDNIGHT AT DFW TERMINALS SHIFTING WINDS LIGHT W/SW LESS THAN 10
KTS...WHILE BEING DELAYED 3-4 HOURS AT WACO. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WINDS WILL BE S/SE 10-15 KTS. THE FROPA WILL GENERALLY
OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AT ALL TERMINALS WITH WINDS BECOMING NW
NEAR 10 KTS...THOUGH IT MAY OCCUR SOONER ACROSS THE DFW AREA.
WE/LL MONITOR FROPA TRENDS CLOSELY FOR CONVERSION TO N FLOW.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR THROUGH 05Z-06Z...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHALLENGE
WILL BE IF SKIES CLEAR MORE THAN EXPECTED AROUND AND AFTER FROPA
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. WITH STANDING WATER AND A LOT OF
WET SOIL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR FORMATION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON CLEARING AND WIND SPEEDS BY 12Z
MONDAY AND WE HOPE TO HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS LEADING UP
TO THE 06Z AND 12Z TAF SETS.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTERACTS WITH
NUMEROUS MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS WELL AS
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WE EXPECT STORM
CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. AGAIN SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WE WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND BRING
AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEST. AS A
RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY
AND ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED
TO FLATTEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON SATURDAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE RAIN CHANCES NEXT SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL STILL HAVE TO BE CONCERNED WITH FLOODING
THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO SATURATED CONDITIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  79  56  73  59 /  70  20  20  40  50
WACO, TX              65  82  57  72  60 /  80  40  60  60  50
PARIS, TX             63  78  56  73  59 /  80  30  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            58  79  54  74  59 /  70  20  10  40  50
MCKINNEY, TX          59  78  56  74  59 /  80  20  10  40  50
DALLAS, TX            62  80  57  73  59 /  80  20  20  40  50
TERRELL, TX           64  80  58  74  60 /  80  40  20  40  50
CORSICANA, TX         65  83  59  73  61 /  80  40  40  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            66  84  58  69  62 /  80  60  60  60  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  78  56  72  59 /  50  20  20  40  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-129>134-141-143>145.

&&

05/79

Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 3:44 PM CDT, 5 hours 2 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 10, 8:20 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 10, 8:27 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
827 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SLIDELL                 33.37N  97.40W
05/10/2015  M3.86 INCH       WISE               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            3.86" OF RAINFALL REPORTED IN ONE HOUR.

Local storm report, May 10, 8:30 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
830 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VALLEY VIEW             33.48N  97.17W
05/10/2015                   COOKE              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            INTERSTATE 35 CLOSED SOUTH OF VALLEY VIEW.

Local storm report, May 10, 8:33 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
833 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             BARRY                   32.10N  96.63W
05/10/2015  E1.75 INCH       NAVARRO            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED SOUTH OF BARRY.

Local storm report, May 10, 8:36 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
836 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ENNIS                   32.33N  96.63W
05/10/2015                   ELLIS              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN ENNIS.

Special weather statement, May 10, 8:37 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
837 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

TXZ122-123-110215-
RAINS TX-VAN ZANDT TX-
837 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VAN ZANDT AND
SOUTHEASTERN RAINS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 836 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
EDOM...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CANTON...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAND SALINE...VAN...FRUITVALE AND EDOM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 529 AND 542.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3235 9558 3236 9581 3276 9581 3275 9564
      3272 9564 3269 9560 3248 9560 3246 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 185DEG 21KT 3242 9570

30

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), 00:00Z

1.8 hours before the tornado, 161 km from the path. May 11, 2015.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1254 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -105 J/kg
Surface CAPE: 2760 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1336 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 229 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 265 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 6.2
0-3 km lapse rate: 6.3 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), 12:00Z

10.2 hours after it, 161 km from the path. May 11, 2015.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.

Hodograph

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -92166 J/kg
Surface CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 963 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 60 kt
0-1 km bulk shear: 7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -4 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0
0-3 km lapse rate: 4.1 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Tyler/Pounds Field (TYR), 25 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)	Temp (°F)	Dew point (°F)	Wind	Gust (kt)	Pressure (mb)	Weather
00:00 UTC

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 158 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 01:45 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

This ground now

The live radar over the track Every 2015 tornado in Texas Every tornado in Texas since 1950 Warnings in force in Texas now The forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of May 10, 2015

23 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

Date	Time	Rating	Where	Path (mi)	Width (yd)	Deaths	Injuries	Damage
May 10	9:01 AM CDT	EF1	Pittsburg, OK	3.8	240			$35,000
May 10	10:21 AM CDT	EF2	Charles Mix, SD	16.2	400		9	$1.5 million
May 10	11:15 AM CDT	EF0	Davison, SD	4.2	50
May 10	2:16 PM CDT	EF1	Denton, TX	5.2	100			$3.5 million
May 10	2:39 PM CDT	EF0	Denton, TX	2.9	75			$40,000
May 10	3:28 PM CDT	EF0	Sioux, IA	0.8	50
May 10	4:08 PM CDT	EF1	Grayson, TX	2.6	100			$50,000
May 10	4:45 PM CDT	EF1	Hamilton, TX	5.1	105			$100,000
May 10	6:03 PM CDT	EF0	Hill, TX	0.6	50
May 10	6:07 PM CDT	EF0	Kaufman, TX	0.1	20
May 10	6:18 PM CDT	EF0	Pushmataha, OK	1.7	100
May 10	6:34 PM CDT	EF0	Kaufman, TX	0.1	50
May 10	7:10 PM CDT	EF1	Carroll, IA	23.3	700			$1.0 million
May 10	7:16 PM CDT	EF0	Miner, SD	0.3	50
May 10	7:18 PM CDT	EF2	Latimer, OK	15.0	880			$100,000
May 10	7:20 PM CDT	EF0	Hill, TX	1.4	150
May 10	7:46 PM CDT	EF0	Latimer, OK	3.7	75
May 10	8:14 PM CDT	EF0	Calhoun, IA	1.0	400
May 10	9:19 PM CDT	EF1	Smith, TX	1.4	440			$125,000
May 10	10:50 PM CDT	EF1	Smith, TX	1.1	450			$125,000
May 10	11:18 PM CDT	EF2	Howard, AR	6.7	400	2	8	$1.5 million
May 10	11:25 PM CDT	EF0	Marion, TX	0.3	172
May 10	11:28 PM CDT	EF0	Marion, TX	2.6	345

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.