EF1 tornado, Hardin Spgs to Flaherty, Kentucky, March 15, 2026

1. EF065 to 85 mph

   Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

   Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

3. EF2111 to 135 mph

   Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

4. EF3136 to 165 mph

   Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

5. EF4166 to 200 mph

   Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

6. EF5over 200 mph

   Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

7. Unrated

   The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

Rating, as surveyed

EF1, preliminary

Date

March 15, 2026

Touchdown

11:29 PM EDT (03:29 UTC)

Lifted

11:42 PM EDT (03:42 UTC)

On the ground

13 minutes

Path length

13.5 miles (21.8 km)

Path width

200 yards (183 m)

Deaths

0

Injuries

0

Counties

Hardin and Meade counties

Touchdown point

37.710, -86.157

Lift-off point

37.862, -86.015

Highest wind the damage implies

110 mph

Surveyed by

NWS LMK

The office's name for it

HardinMeadeTor

Survey last edited

April 3, 2026

Record number

None yet. SPC numbers 2026 in the spring of 2027.

Per high resolution satellite imagery of damage in a heavily forested area, a new tornado track began just near the intersection of Hardinsburg Rd and Fields Rd. This track briefly crossed Saint John Rd, but missed any structures there before entering another forested area. The first structural damage along this path was along Tyson Ln near Brizendine Ln where a barn hit the threshold of visible damage. Another open air barn along Brizendine Ln had its roof thrown into a wooded area west of the barn. A little farther downstream towards New Salem Church Rd there was additional structural damage.

This tornado crossed into Meade County near Rineyville Rd. A bigger tree fell onto a house in the Country Ct area. The tornado took a leftward turn, heading north mimicking a turn in the tight mesovortex seen on radar imagery. It caused damage at the Meade County Bank near the intersection of Flaherty Rd and Joe Prather Hwy. Damage was observed to trees and some houses along Camelot Drive and Rabbit Run Road. The tornado continued across fields and did extensive damage to a farm beside Fort Avenue. Multiple farm buildings were significantly damaged with roofs lofted across Rabbit Run Rd east of Fort Avenue, where the damage appeared to end.

It should be noted that an advanced spotter on base at Fort Knox reported seeing broad rotation as the storm passed his location, but with no contact with the ground. He sheltered in his basement as the storm passed and heard debris hitting his house. After heading out he saw large limbs in his yard from a tree across the street. Then he observed with a handheld anemometer a 76 mph wind gust behind the first wave, likely with a rear flank downdraft surge. As of this writing, no damage has been noted connecting this third tornado or the downdraft surge in the narrative below with this damage at Fort Knox. We may yet have further updates here.

Written by NWS LMK in the NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit. A survey is revised as better evidence arrives.

118 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS LMK, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 110 mph.

• Eyewitness saw broad rotation but did not see contact with ground before sheltering in basement. Heard debris impacting home then observed large limbs down in his yard from a tree across the street. Then observed 76 mph from a hand anemometer, likely with rear flank downdraft surge.
• Estimated end point per GIS Mutual Aid.
• EM relayed picture of outbuilding with over half roof torn off. Additional pictures of trees uprooted or damaged in the area. Another pic of a snapped tree falling into an outbuilding.
• EM pictures of damage to a larger outdoor garage with roof peeled off.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

During the late evening and overnight hours March 15th into March 16th, a strong upper level trough and associated cold front moved across the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures were in the 70s with dew point temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s. This corridor of modest low-level destabilization contained between 250 and 500 J/kg of MLCAPE which was oriented immediately ahead of the surface front and the main line of showers and thunderstorms. With a corridor of 80 knot mid-level winds approaching from the west, effective bulk shear was between 40 and 50 knots for this event, creating a typical high-shear, low-CAPE setup for central Kentucky and southern Indiana. While the primary forcing mechanism was lifting along the cold front, resulting in a quasi-linear convective system, some scattered cells developed ahead of the main line of storms across western Kentucky. These storms had transient supercellular characteristics, and would go on to produce a swath of stronger winds and a few embedded tornadoes across Butler, Grayson, Breckinridge, Hardin, and Meade County. Elsewhere across Kentucky, scattered wind damage was produced by the main line of storms, with more favorably oriented segments of the line producing additional weak spin-up tornadoes. As the line of storms pushed east toward the I-75 corridor early in the morning on March 16th, there was a general weakening trend as MLCAPE values dropped to only around 100 J/kg across the Bluegrass. However, the portion of the line across southern Kentucky had access to slightly greater instability, resulting in additional instances of wind damage and a spin-up tornado in Clinton County. The line of storms eventually pushed into eastern Kentucky by around 3 AM on March 16th, with much cooler air rushing into the region behind the cold front.

The tornado entered the county near Hardin Springs where several trees were uprooted and snapped. Per high resolution satellite imagery the tornado ended just northeast of Hardin Springs and just east of Mount Olive Rd.

The estimated starting point for the tornado along this storm's track, per high resolution satellite imagery, was in a wooded area just west of Pierce Mill Road south of Garfield. Significant damage occurred to a home near Pierce Mill Road, where a portion of the roof was taken from the home above the garage and living space below. Mud splatter occurred to the front of the home at this location, and a wood plank was thrown backward into the roof above the living room. Several wood pieces were impaled into the ground at the property. ||The tornado continued north northeast, causing damage in a forested area that opened up into Horn Cemetery. It then caused structural damage along Constantine Road. Downstream wooded areas showed evidence that the occluding tornado still caused damage before lifting southwest of Slaughter Road. At that point the rear flank downdraft surged ahead and caused damage along a swath just east of this track.

Per high resolution satellite imagery of damage in a heavily forested area, a new tornado track began just near the intersection of Hardinsburg Rd and Fields Rd. This track briefly crossed Saint John Rd, but missed any structures there before entering another forested area. The first structural damage along this path was along Tyson Ln near Brizendine Ln where a barn hit the threshold of visible damage. Another open air barn along Brizendine Ln had its roof thrown into a wooded area west of the barn. A little farther downstream towards New Salem Church Rd there was additional structural damage.

The tornado crossed into Meade County near Rineyville Rd. A bigger tree fell onto a house in the Country Ct area. The tornado took a leftward turn, heading north, mimicking a turn in the tight mesovortex seen on radar imagery. It caused damage at the Meade County Bank near the intersection of Flaherty Rd and Joe Prather Hwy. Damage was observed to trees and some houses along Camelot Drive and Rabbit Run Road. The tornado continued across fields and did extensive damage to a farm beside Fort Avenue. Multiple farm buildings were significantly damaged with roofs lofted across Rabbit Run Rd east of Fort Avenue, where the damage appeared to end.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Enhanced Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles, in the hatched area where significant tornadoes were expected. The outlook in force was issued at 00:43 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at Mar 15, 7:48 PM EDT, 3 hours 41 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

• * Strong winds from the south continue this afternoon with gusts of 40-50 mph. Some isolated areas of 50+ mph will be possible. * A robust cold front will push across the region tonight and early Monday morning. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany the front with a damaging wind threat. Tornadoes will also be possible. * Rapid drop in temperatures early Monday morning, with scattered snow showers expected Monday. Light snow accumulations will be possible. * Much colder conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday. Wind chills in the single digits and teens for Tuesday morning.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
748 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Strong winds from the south continue this afternoon with gusts of
  40-50 mph. Some isolated areas of 50+ mph will be possible.

* A robust cold front will push across the region tonight and early
  Monday morning. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will
  accompany the front with a damaging wind threat. Tornadoes will
  also be possible.

* Rapid drop in temperatures early Monday morning, with scattered
  snow showers expected Monday. Light snow accumulations will be
  possible.

* Much colder conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday. Wind
  chills in the single digits and teens for Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong, deep S/SW flow is in place ahead of a deepening low pressure
system moving across the Midwest. A potent mid/upper level trough
will continue to dig over the Midwest and MS Valley through tonight,
while a sub-990 mb sfc low lifts northeast over Lower MI. We have
seen widespread 40-50 mph gusts out of the south today, with brief
gusts of 50-60 mph across southern IN and northern KY. We did
consider an upgrade to a High Wind Warning for 60+ mph damaging
gusts, but the strongest gradient winds were occurring 17-18Z and
current ASOS/AWOS/KY Mesonet obs are all in the 35-50 mph range. The
strongest core of the LLJ also continues to lift northeast across
central IN.

This afternoon, a thin QLCS is pushing east across central MO along
the cold front. This line of very gusty showers and thunderstorms is
still expected to sweep west to east across central KY and southern
IN between 9 PM EDT - 3 AM EDT tonight. The low-level moisture
quality and sfc-based instability still look marginal (up to 250-500
J/kg SBCAPE), but the wind damage threat should be taken seriously.
The southerly LLJ ramps up significantly tonight immediately ahead
of the convective line, with 60-70 kts noted in the 1-3 km layer.
With increased turbulent mixing and convective downdrafts, scattered
to numerous instances of wind damage are expected along the leading
edge of the QLCS. Isolated 70+ mph gusts will be possible,
especially with any bows or surges along the line. Tornadoes are
also possible, but the tornado potential will be limited by the
overnight timing and waning sfc-based instability as the line pushes
east.

Showers are expected to clear the Bluegrass Region around 4 AM EDT,
with strong westerly cold air advection behind the cold front.
Expect a brief lull in precipitation, with rapidly falling
temperatures and gusty westerly winds of 25-35 mph. The upper trough
swings overhead on Monday, with wrap-around moisture pivoting across
IN and central KY. Steepening lapse rates and a cooling/moistening
profile up through 700 mb will yield scattered snow showers late
Monday morning through the afternoon hours. A quick dusting of
accumulation will be possible, perhaps up to an inch in very
localized swaths. Temperatures will struggle in the 30s through the
daytime in the CAA regime.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

It will remain somewhat breezy Monday night as temperatures fall
through the 20s, evening dropping into the mid/upper teens early
Tuesday morning across southern IN and north-central KY. Wind chills
in the single digits and teens are likely Tuesday morning.

High pressure builds across the region on Tuesday, and afternoon
temps will recover into the low to mid 30s. It will remain chilly
into Tuesday night, with lows in the low to mid 20s. Increasing SW
winds and WAA will help boost temperatures into the mid 40s to mid
50s on Wednesday ahead of a weak clipper. This system could spread
light rain and snow as far south as southern IN and central KY.
Relatively drier and warmer weather is expected heading into late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Winds will remain strong out of the south ahead of the approaching
cold front. Radar mosaic shows a line of strong to severe storms
working westward. Currently this line stretches from KCMI to KMVN
with another area of development out ahead of this approaching line.
These two areas merge with a main line working from HNB around 02z
to SDF/BWG around 04z to LEX/RGA around 06z. The storms themselves
could have strong damaging winds of over 50-60kts. Winds will remain
gusty with lingering rain and then a change over to snow as colder
air moves in. There may be a period of dry air with this but winds
will shift from the south to the west as the boundary moves through.
Scattered light snow along with gusty winds will be around during
the day with lingering MVFR CIG that arrive behind the passing front
during the overnight into tomorrow morning. Could see CIG return to
VFR after 18z tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for INZ076>079-
     083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BTN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
350 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-162000-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
350 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 /250 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong winds from the south are expected this afternoon and evening,
with peak wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will push west to east
across the area between 9 PM EDT tonight and 4 AM EDT Monday.
Damaging winds are the primary severe weather hazard, but tornadoes
will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Light snow accumulations are possible on Monday with conditions
becoming much colder Monday morning. Single digit wind chills are
possible early Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms will move east at 55 to 60 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

EBW

In the hours before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1111 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Woodbury          37.16N 86.67W
03/15/2026  M68 MPH          Butler             KY   Mesonet

&&

SRW

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Fort Knox/Godman (FTK), 17 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 24 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 03:31 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

The live radar over the trackEvery 2026 tornado in KentuckyEvery tornado in Kentucky since 1950Warnings in force in Kentucky nowThe forecast where you are

43 more have been surveyed in the United States that day, so far.

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. A survey can be revised, so the rating, the path and the casualties can all still change.

NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit, the record the survey teams file from the damage, and NOAA Storm Prediction Center storm reports. Neither is the official database for 2026, which SPC publishes in the spring of 2027.