Tornadoes · United States · Kansas · 2015

EF1 tornado, Laird to Ransom, Kansas, November 16, 2015

From Laird to Ransom, this EF1 tornado ran 3.9 miles across Ness County on November 16, 2015, touching down at 6:27 PM CST and reaching 200 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
November 16, 2015
Touchdown
6:27 PM CST (00:27 UTC)
Lifted
6:39 PM CST (00:39 UTC)
On the ground
12 minutes
Path length
3.9 miles (6.3 km)
Path width
200 yards (183 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Ness County
Touchdown point
38.534, -99.998
Lift-off point
38.589, -99.979
Record number
1511161827-01

The damage survey

15 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS DDC, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 101 mph.

  • The upper portion of the snapped tree blew to the northeast. The adjacent uprooted tree blew to the west.
  • The barn was constructed of stone and wood and was 115 years old.
  • The structure was lifted from its foundation and rolled onto its roof.
  • The bin was lofted into the trees.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

An unusually strong November severe weather episode occurred across the region. A very strong upper level low approached with with strong winds aloft. An unusually high amount of moisture and unseasonably unstable airmass were transported north into Kansas. Storms developed along a dry line but quickly moved off the dryline and became supercellular. Large, long tracked and rapidly moving tornadoes occurred along with instances of large and damaging hail.

This tornado snapped tree trunks and small barns and farm outbuildings were destroyed.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 20:16 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the tornado touched down, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the tornado touched down at Nov 16, 3:07 PM CST, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 16, 3:07 PM CST, 3 hours 20 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
307 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

Thunderstorms are likely tonight as short range models indicate
a strong closed off upper level low shifting east out of the
Four Corners Region into the Central/Southern Rockies and the
Western High Plains. As the system approaches, a developing
surface low across eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas
will deepen while beginning to shift further east across western
Kansas. Meanwhile, moisture will continue to advect northward
into central and portions of western Kansas ahead of a developing
dryline with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s(F) to near
60F. The dryline will sharpen as it begins to migrate eastward in
conjunction with the surface low, providing an axis of increased
convergence. Meanwhile, the flow aloft will continue to intensify
significantly with a +100kt jet lifting northeast into the
Central Plains with a left exit region setting up across central
Kansas. As a result, showers and thunderstorms will develop late
this afternoon, generally along and ahead of the dryline. Storms
are then projected to spread northeast through this evening. The
intensity of the flow aloft combined with MUCAPE values exceeding
1000 J/KG in an axis ahead of the dryline may increase the
potential for severe storms. The primary threat will be large
hail and damaging winds. However, considering the expected
strength of the deep layer shear, tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Precip chances pick back up early Tuesday as the advancing surface
low pushes further east out of western Kansas. According to
all short range models, precip development will be possible
within a band of post-frontal H7 frontogenesis as the surface low
departs to the east. The better chance for precip remains to be
across west central Kansas with precip type being primarily snow
according to NAM model soundings. Although snow amounts are
expected to be fairly low, strong northwest winds will develop
behind the front creating blowing snow conditions where any
snowfall occurs, possibly restricting visbilities. Drier conditions
are then expected Wednesday through the end of the week as a
westerly flow aloft develops behind the departing upper level
trough.

Somewhat cooler temperatures are likely tonight as a cold
front begins to push into extreme western Kansas early Tuesday
morning. Look for lows down into the 30s(F) across west central
Kansas with the lower to mid 50s(F) possible in south central
Kansas well ahead of the cold front. Colder temperatures are
likely for highs Tuesday as the aforementioned cold front pushes
through southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures may fail to
climb out of the 30s(F) in west central Kansas with highs reaching
up into the 40s(F) and 50s(F) toward south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

Medium range models indicate a strong upper level trough of low
pressure lifting northeast across the Central Plains into the Great
Lakes Region Wednesday giving way to a more westerly flow aloft
across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level
shortwave will dig southeast across the Northern Plains sending yet
another frontal boundary southeastward through western Kansas.
Although the flow aloft will be slowly intensifying, much drier
air filtering down into the high plains will hinder any precip
development across western Kansas through the end of the week.
Fairly seasonable temperatures are expected for highs Wednesday as
a west-northwesterly downslope flow sets up behind the departing
cold front from the day prior. This will allow highs to bounce
back up into the 50s(F) to near 60F Wednesday afternoon. Highs
will drop back down once again Thursday in wake of another cold
front pushing through late Wednesday. Expect highs only up into
the 40s(F) in west central Kansas to the lower/mid 50s(F) in south
central Kansas. The seasonal temperatures are expected to prevail
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

Low level stratus will persist across central Kansas through
this evening resulting in potential periodic MVFR cigs to KHYS.
Meanwhile, thunderstorms will develop across the panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma late this afternoon with storms spreading
northeast into portions of southwest and central Kansas into
this evening...potentially affecting all TAF sites. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected during the overnight hours. Gusty
south winds around 20 to 35kt will persist across western Kansas
through late this afternoon as a strong lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern Colorado. Winds
will then subside and become more variable this evening as the
surface trough develops into a low pressure center and begins to
edge eastward across western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  49  31  59 /  80  60  40   0
GCK  38  40  31  59 /  70  70  40   0
EHA  37  38  33  60 /  50  70  30   0
LBL  40  45  34  61 /  70  60  30   0
HYS  50  50  32  56 /  70  60  50   0
P28  50  55  35  62 /  80  30  30   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 16, 4:23 AM CST, 14 hours 4 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
423 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171030-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
423 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015 /323 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COLORADO LINE IN
THE MID AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND IS THE GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 ON TUESDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
COMPOUND THE IMPACTS OF ANY SNOW THAT MAY FALL.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  TUESDAY...
  ELEVATED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  ELEVATED SNOW RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  THURSDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  FRIDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  SATURDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  SUNDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

33

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 16, 5:05 PM CST, 1 hour 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
505 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             1 NNE GARDEN CITY       38.00N 100.86W
11/16/2015  E0.88 INCH       FINNEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Nov 16, 5:22 PM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
522 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TORNADO          11 N PIERCEVILLE        38.04N 100.63W
11/16/2015                   FINNEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Nov 16, 5:44 PM CST, 43 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
544 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             LIBERAL                 37.05N 100.94W
11/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       SEWARD             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Nov 16, 5:45 PM CST, 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
545 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             8 W LIBERAL             37.04N 101.08W
11/16/2015  E1.75 INCH       STEVENS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Nov 16, 5:50 PM CST, 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
550 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TORNADO          3 N HAYNE               37.14N 100.80W
11/16/2015                   SEWARD             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DEBRIS WERE REPORTED IN THE AIR.

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Nov 16, 6:09 PM CST, 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
609 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TORNADO          5 NNE KISMET            37.27N 100.66W
11/16/2015                   SEWARD             KS   STORM CHASER

            CHASER ESTIMATED A QUARTER MILE WIDE TORNADO

&&

SUGDEN

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Dodge City, (KDDC), 00:00Z

0.5 hours before the tornado, 88 km from the path. November 17, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2015-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 994 joules per kilogram, CIN -42, lifted condensation level 812 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2015-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 351 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 63 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
994 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-42 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1518 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
812 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
351 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
399 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.5
Supercell composite
11.3
0-3 km lapse rate
6.8 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Dodge City, (KDDC), 12:00Z

11.5 hours after it, 88 km from the path. November 17, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2015-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -121, lifted condensation level 1629 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2015-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 96 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 90 knots.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-121 J/kg
Surface CAPE
77 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1629 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
90 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
96 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-3 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
6.1 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Hays_muni (HYS), 69 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
00:00 UTC

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 00:27 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2015 tornado in KansasEvery tornado in Kansas since 1950Warnings in force in Kansas nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of November 16, 2015

38 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
November 163:54 PM CSTEF0Grant, KS0.125
November 165:14 PM CSTEF0Finney, KS4.650
November 165:20 PM CSTEF0Gove, KS2.725
November 165:30 PM CSTEF0Gove, KS1.825
November 165:34 PM CSTEF1Gove, KS18.5300
November 165:38 PM CSTEF3Seward, KS51.32,000
November 165:44 PM CSTEF0Armstrong, TX0.450
November 165:44 PM CSTEF0Roberts, TX0.150
November 165:56 PM CSTEF2Lane, KS16.51,500
November 166:05 PM CSTEF0Roberts, TX0.350
November 166:09 PM CSTEF0Carson, TX0.250
November 166:19 PM CSTEF1Meade, KS6.3100
November 166:20 PM CSTEF3Gray, TX31.9750
November 166:36 PM CSTEF1Norton, KS6.0100
November 166:42 PM CSTEF2Carson, TX10.4175
November 166:44 PM CSTEF0Ochiltree, TX3.7100
November 166:46 PM CSTEF2Gaines, TX5.6100
November 166:52 PM CSTEF1Ochiltree, TX5.8200
November 166:55 PM CSTEF2Gray, KS14.9500
November 167:00 PM CSTEF1Ochiltree, TX to OK5.2400
November 167:06 PM CSTEF3Gray, TX10.9500
November 167:06 PM CSTEF0Trego, KS1.7100
November 167:10 PM CSTEF1Norton, KS3.9400$83,000
November 167:10 PM CSTEF0Beaver, OK4.2100
November 167:22 PM CSTEF1Gray, TX16.0300
November 167:24 PM CSTEF1Norton, KS to NE18.4400$50,000
November 167:43 PM CSTEF0Hutchinson, TX0.650
November 167:45 PM CSTEF0Roberts, TX7.250
November 167:58 PM CSTEF0Potter, TX0.450
November 168:13 PM CSTEF1Comanche, KS16.1810
November 168:19 PM CSTEF1Trego, KS0.8100
November 168:20 PM CSTEF1Hemphill, TX to OK43.0200
November 168:26 PM CSTEF1Ochiltree, TX14.670
November 168:38 PM CSTEF1Comanche, KS5.3460
November 168:59 PM CSTEF0Lipscomb, TX4.7100
November 169:18 PM CSTEF2Harper, OK27.2400$7,000
November 169:24 PM CSTEF1Beaver, OK8.9500
November 1610:09 PM CSTEF1Woods, OK3.3200

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.