Tornadoes · United States · Oklahoma · 2015

EF2 tornado, Fargo to Selman, Oklahoma, November 16, 2015

From Fargo to Selman, this EF2 tornado ran 27.2 miles across Harper and Ellis counties on November 16, 2015, touching down at 9:18 PM CST and reaching 400 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $7,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mphthis tornado

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF2
Date
November 16, 2015
Touchdown
9:18 PM CST (03:18 UTC)
Lifted
9:51 PM CST (03:51 UTC)
On the ground
33 minutes
Path length
27.2 miles (43.8 km)
Path width
400 yards (366 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$7,000
Counties
Harper and Ellis counties
Touchdown point
36.522, -99.729
Lift-off point
36.842, -99.450
Record number
1511162118-01

The damage survey

2 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS DDC, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 88 mph.

  • Tornado crossed into Comanche county from Oklahoma.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

A line of storms formed along an eastward moving front overnight on the 16th and continued into the morning of the 17th. Several of these storms produced severe winds, and a few produced tornadoes.

The first damage known to occur with this tornado was damage to trees near EW 34 Road and NS 184 Road. A home received damage, sheds were destroyed, and trees were snapped between NS 186 and NS 187 on EW 31 Road. This tornado moved into Harper County west of Fort Supply.

This tornado moved from Ellis County into Harper County to the west of Fort Supply. Four electrical transmission poles were broken as well as several trees 4 miles west of Fort Supply. Outbuildings were heavily damaged north of Fort Supply as the tornado continued northeast, and more power poles were broken east of Buffalo near the end of the tornado's path.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

3 minutes of warning. NWS OUN issued a tornado warning for this county at 03:15 UTC, 3 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 03:32 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 02:18 UTC and running to 06:09 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
02:18 UTC06:09 UTCTornado WatchOUN
02:42 UTC03:15 UTCTornado WarningOUN
03:15 UTC03:32 UTCTornado WarningOUN

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Enhanced Risk, with a 0.10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles, in the hatched area where significant tornadoes were expected. The outlook in force was issued at 01:06 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Dodge City, (KDDC), 00:00Z

3.3 hours before the tornado, 124 km from the path. November 17, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2015-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 994 joules per kilogram, CIN -42, lifted condensation level 812 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2015-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 351 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 63 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
994 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-42 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1518 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
812 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
351 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
399 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.5
Supercell composite
11.3
0-3 km lapse rate
6.8 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Dodge City, (KDDC), 12:00Z

8.7 hours after it, 124 km from the path. November 17, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2015-11-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -121, lifted condensation level 1629 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2015-11-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 96 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 90 knots.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-121 J/kg
Surface CAPE
77 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1629 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
90 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
96 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-3 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
6.1 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

West Woodward (WWR), 28 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
01:35 UTC62.659160° 22 kt28999.3
01:55 UTC62.659160° 20 kt27998.6
02:15 UTC62.659150° 20 kt27998.3
02:35 UTC64.459150° 23 kt30997.6
02:55 UTC62.659160° 24 kt31997.6
03:15 UTC62.659150° 22 kt30997.3TS
03:35 UTC64.459150° 20 kt29997.6
03:55 UTC64.459160° 18 kt25997.3VCTS
04:15 UTC64.459170° 17 kt26997.6VCTS
04:35 UTC64.459180° 17 kt28997.3+RA
04:55 UTC64.459180° 15 kt22997.6-VCTSRA
05:15 UTC60.853.6210° 26 kt42999.7TSRA

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 125 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 03:15 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
02:55 UTCHAIL 1.7513 N ShattuckEllis, OKHWY 283 13 MILES N OF SHATTUCK.
03:05 UTCTSTM WND DMG12 N ShattuckEllis, OK1 MILE OF POWER PLOES DOWN, HOME DAMAGED. HWY 15 .5 MILE WEST OF 283.
03:36 UTCTORNADO6 W SlapoutBeaver, OKBRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN AN OPEN FIELD. NO VISIBLE DAMAGE AND NO DAMAGE REPORTED. EF0.
03:46 UTCTSTM WND DMG5 Wnw Fort SupplyHarper, OKFIVE POWERPOLES BROKEN AT THE BASE.
03:46 UTCTORNADO5 Wnw Fort SupplyHarper, OKFIVE POWERPOLES BROKEN AT THE BASE. SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO IN THE AREA.
04:52 UTCTSTM WND GST 612 Sw GageEllis, OK
04:56 UTCTSTM WND GST 582 Sw GageEllis, OK
05:40 UTCTSTM WND GST 583 Ssw FreedomWoodward, OK

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2015 tornado in OklahomaEvery tornado in Oklahoma since 1950Warnings in force in Oklahoma nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of November 16, 2015

38 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
November 163:54 PM CSTEF0Grant, KS0.125
November 165:14 PM CSTEF0Finney, KS4.650
November 165:20 PM CSTEF0Gove, KS2.725
November 165:30 PM CSTEF0Gove, KS1.825
November 165:34 PM CSTEF1Gove, KS18.5300
November 165:38 PM CSTEF3Seward, KS51.32,000
November 165:44 PM CSTEF0Armstrong, TX0.450
November 165:44 PM CSTEF0Roberts, TX0.150
November 165:56 PM CSTEF2Lane, KS16.51,500
November 166:05 PM CSTEF0Roberts, TX0.350
November 166:09 PM CSTEF0Carson, TX0.250
November 166:19 PM CSTEF1Meade, KS6.3100
November 166:20 PM CSTEF3Gray, TX31.9750
November 166:27 PM CSTEF1Ness, KS3.9200
November 166:36 PM CSTEF1Norton, KS6.0100
November 166:42 PM CSTEF2Carson, TX10.4175
November 166:44 PM CSTEF0Ochiltree, TX3.7100
November 166:46 PM CSTEF2Gaines, TX5.6100
November 166:52 PM CSTEF1Ochiltree, TX5.8200
November 166:55 PM CSTEF2Gray, KS14.9500
November 167:00 PM CSTEF1Ochiltree, TX to OK5.2400
November 167:06 PM CSTEF3Gray, TX10.9500
November 167:06 PM CSTEF0Trego, KS1.7100
November 167:10 PM CSTEF1Norton, KS3.9400$83,000
November 167:10 PM CSTEF0Beaver, OK4.2100
November 167:22 PM CSTEF1Gray, TX16.0300
November 167:24 PM CSTEF1Norton, KS to NE18.4400$50,000
November 167:43 PM CSTEF0Hutchinson, TX0.650
November 167:45 PM CSTEF0Roberts, TX7.250
November 167:58 PM CSTEF0Potter, TX0.450
November 168:13 PM CSTEF1Comanche, KS16.1810
November 168:19 PM CSTEF1Trego, KS0.8100
November 168:20 PM CSTEF1Hemphill, TX to OK43.0200
November 168:26 PM CSTEF1Ochiltree, TX14.670
November 168:38 PM CSTEF1Comanche, KS5.3460
November 168:59 PM CSTEF0Lipscomb, TX4.7100
November 169:24 PM CSTEF1Beaver, OK8.9500
November 1610:09 PM CSTEF1Woods, OK3.3200

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.